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Modeling Tourism Demand in Turkey (2008–2024): Time-Series Approaches for Sustainable Growth

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  • Günal Bilek

    (Department of Business Administration, Izmir Democracy University, 35140 Izmir, Turkey)

Abstract

Tourism is a critical sector for economic growth and cultural exchange, particularly for destinations like Turkey, which consistently attracts millions of visitors annually. This study investigates the dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey between 2008 and 2024, with a focus on seasonality, long-term trends, and predictive modeling accuracy. Time-series data were analyzed, and the impacts of economic indicators and digital search trends were evaluated using SARIMA and SARIMAX models. The results demonstrate that the SARIMA models outperformed the SARIMAX models, highlighting the dominance of intrinsic seasonal patterns over external regressors, such as exchange rates and inflation. The findings emphasize that geographic proximity and cultural similarities drive consistent tourist flows, while behavioral data like Google Trends provide supplementary insights into demand shifts. However, economic variables showed limited short-term predictive power. These results underscore the importance of prioritizing time-series structures in forecasting frameworks while complementing them with behavioral indicators for enhanced accuracy. This study contributes to the literature by addressing a critical gap in understanding how various factors influence tourism demand in Turkey and offers practical implications for policymakers and tourism planners to optimize strategic planning and resource allocation, ensuring sustainable tourism growth. Future research should explore hybrid models that incorporate sentiment-driven data and cultural factors for more robust forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Günal Bilek, 2025. "Modeling Tourism Demand in Turkey (2008–2024): Time-Series Approaches for Sustainable Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-19, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:1396-:d:1586720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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