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Hydro-Climatic Trends in Central Italy: A Case Study from the Aterno-Pescara River Watershed

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  • Mohsin Tariq

    (DiSPuTeR, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, Via Dei Vestini 31, 66100 Chieti, Italy
    Department of Earth Sciences, COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan)

  • Eleonora Aruffo

    (Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy
    Center for Advanced Studies and Technology (CAST), University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy)

  • Piero Chiacchiaretta

    (Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy
    Center for Advanced Studies and Technology (CAST), University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy)

  • Piero Di Carlo

    (Department of Advanced Technologies in Medicine & Dentistry, University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy
    Center for Advanced Studies and Technology (CAST), University of “G. d’ Annunzio” Chieti-Pescara, 66100 Chieti, Italy)

Abstract

Climate change is reshaping water systems and trends in hydro-climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and river runoff, providing critical insights into the hydrological shifts influenced by climate change. However, the impact of climate variability on these variables varies by geographic location, making it necessary to study hydro-climatic variations in the Mediterranean’s changing climate to determine its impacts. This study analyzed the hydro-climatic trends in the Aterno-Pescara River watershed in central Italy from 1936 to 2013. We employed linear regression, Mann–Kendall, Sen’s slope, and Spearman correlation tests to estimate annual and seasonal trends. The results showed a significant warming trend on annual (0.037 °C/year) and seasonal time scales. Precipitation trends exhibited significant reductions annually, specifically during the autumn season, with a decrease of −0.68 mm/year; while showing a decline, other seasons were statistically insignificant. River runoff revealed drying trends annually and seasonally, decreasing by −0.29 m 3 s −1 /year over the study period. Furthermore, linear regression and Spearman correlation coefficients suggested a significant relationship between hydro-climatic variables with varying strengths (at 95% and 99% confidence levels) annually and seasonally. This decrease in precipitation and river runoff trends with the continuous rate points towards potential meteorological and hydrological droughts occurring in the future in this watershed. This study’s findings provide scientific grounds that could help develop sustainable strategies in the watershed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsin Tariq & Eleonora Aruffo & Piero Chiacchiaretta & Piero Di Carlo, 2025. "Hydro-Climatic Trends in Central Italy: A Case Study from the Aterno-Pescara River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:2:p:493-:d:1564004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    2. Xingming Hao & Yaning Chen & Changchun Xu & Weihong Li, 2008. "Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1159-1171, September.
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