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Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Author

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  • Fahad Khan Khadim

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Zoi Dokou

    (Department of Civil Engineering, California State University, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA)

  • Rehenuma Lazin

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

  • Emmanouil Anagnostou

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA)

Abstract

Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Fahad Khan Khadim & Zoi Dokou & Rehenuma Lazin & Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2023. "Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:7:p:6284-:d:1117157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Genevieve Rigler & Zoi Dokou & Fahad Khan Khadim & Berhanu G. Sinshaw & Daniel G. Eshete & Muludel Aseres & Wendale Amera & Wangchi Zhou & Xingyu Wang & Mamaru Moges & Muluken Azage & Baikun Li & Eliz, 2022. "Citizen Science and the Sustainable Development Goals: Building Social and Technical Capacity through Data Collection in the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Yang, Meijian & Wang, Guiling & Lazin, Rehenuma & Shen, Xinyi & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2021. "Impact of planting time soil moisture on cereal crop yield in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: A novel insight towards agricultural water management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Deininger, Klaus & Monchuk, Daniel, 2020. "Using satellite imagery to assess impacts of soil and water conservation measures: Evidence from Ethiopia’s Tana-Beles watershed," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Khadim, Fahad Khan & Dokou, Zoi & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Yang, Meijian & Lijalem, Girmachew Addisu & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2021. "A numerical framework to advance agricultural water management under hydrological stress conditions in a data scarce environment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    5. Desalegn Edossa & Mukand Babel & Ashim Das Gupta, 2010. "Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1441-1460, May.
    6. Walker, D. & Parkin, G. & Gowing, J. & Haile, Alemseged Tamiru, 2019. "Development of a hydrogeological conceptual model for shallow aquifers in the data scarce Upper Blue Nile Basin," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 6(2):1-24..
    7. Fantaye, S. M. & Wolde, B. B. & Haile, Alemseged Tamiru & Taye, Meron Teferi, 2023. "Estimation of shallow groundwater abstraction for irrigation and its impact on groundwater availability in the Lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 1-46:101365.
    8. Kirsty Lewis, 2017. "Understanding climate as a driver of food insecurity in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 317-328, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahaad Issa Shammas, 2024. "Water Resource Management of Salalah Plain Aquifer Using a Sustainable Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-22, April.

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