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Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation

Author

Listed:
  • Aled Jones

    (Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge CB1 1PT, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Sarah Bridle

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Katherine Denby

    (Centre for Novel Agricultural Products (CNAP), Department of Biology, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Riaz Bhunnoo

    (Global Food Security Programme, Polaris House, Swindon SN2 1UH, UK)

  • Daniel Morton

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH), Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK)

  • Lucy Stanbrough

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Barnaby Coupe

    (The Wildlife Trusts, The Kiln, Mather Road, Newark NG24 1WT, UK)

  • Vanessa Pilley

    (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK)

  • Tim Benton

    (Chatham House, 10 St James Square, London SW1Y 4LE, UK)

  • Pete Falloon

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
    School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK)

  • Tom K. Matthews

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK)

  • Saher Hasnain

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, UK)

  • John S. Heslop-Harrison

    (Institute for Environmental Futures, Department of Genetics and Genome Biology, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK)

  • Simon Beard

    (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK)

  • Julie Pierce

    (Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1–2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK)

  • Jules Pretty

    (Centre for Public and Policy Engagement, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK)

  • Monika Zurek

    (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 4BH, UK)

  • Alexandra Johnstone

    (The Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB25 2ZD, UK)

  • Pete Smith

    (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK)

  • Neil Gunn

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Molly Watson

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Edward Pope

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Asaf Tzachor

    (Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK
    School of Sustainability, Reichman University, 8 Ha’Universita St., Herzliya 4610101, Israel)

  • Caitlin Douglas

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK)

  • Christian Reynolds

    (Centre for Food Policy, City, University of London, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK)

  • Neil Ward

    (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK)

  • Jez Fredenburgh

    (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK)

  • Clare Pettinger

    (School of Health Professions, University of Plymouth, Plymouth PL6 8BH, UK)

  • Tom Quested

    (Waste & Resources Action Programme (WRAP), Blenheim Court, 19 George Street, Barnaby OC16 5BH, UK)

  • Juan Pablo Cordero

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK)

  • Clive Mitchell

    (NatureScot, Battleby, Redgorton, Perth PH1 3EW, UK)

  • Carrie Bewick

    (Forum for the Future, 3rd Floor, 22–26 Paul Street, London EC2A 4QE, UK)

  • Cameron Brown

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Christopher Brown

    (Sustainable Supply Chains, Asda, Asda House, Great Wilson Street, Leeds LS11 5AD, UK)

  • Paul J. Burgess

    (School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK)

  • Andy Challinor

    (School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9AT, UK)

  • Andrew Cottrell

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Thomas Crocker

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitz Roy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Thomas George

    (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Nobel House, Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR, UK)

  • Charles J. Godfray

    (Oxford Martin School, Oxford University, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK)

  • Rosie S. Hails

    (National Trust, Heelis, Kemble Drive, Swindon SN2 2NA, UK)

  • John Ingram

    (Department of Geography, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK)

  • Tim Lang

    (School of Sustainability, Reichman University, 8 Ha’Universita St., Herzliya 4610101, Israel)

  • Fergus Lyon

    (Centre for Enterprise Environment and Development Research, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4 4BT, UK)

  • Simon Lusher

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Tom MacMillan

    (Centre for Effective Innovation in Agriculture, Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester GL7 6JS, UK)

  • Sue Newton

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Simon Pearson

    (Lincoln Institute for Agri-Food Technology, University of Lincoln, Lincoln LN6 7TS, UK)

  • Sue Pritchard

    (The Food, Farming and Countryside Commission, 1–3 Gloucester Road, Bristol BS7 8AA, UK)

  • Dale Sanders

    (Biology Department, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Angelina Sanderson Bellamy

    (School of Applied Sciences, University of the West of England (UWE), Bristol BS16 1QY, UK)

  • Megan Steven

    (WTW (Willis Towers Watson), 51 Lime Street, London EC3M 7DQ, UK)

  • Alastair Trickett

    (Trickett Farming Ltd., Fortshot House Farm, Wike, Leeds LS17 9JY, UK)

  • Andrew Voysey

    (Soil Capital, 6 Putney Common, London SW15 1HL, UK)

  • Christine Watson

    (Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC), Peter Wilson Building, The King’s Buildings, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK)

  • Darren Whitby

    (Food Standards Agency, Foss House, Kings Pool, 1–2 Peasholme Green, York Y01 7PR, UK)

  • Kerry Whiteside

    (Samworth Brothers, 1 Samworth Way, Melton Mowbray LE13 1GA, UK)

Abstract

We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Aled Jones & Sarah Bridle & Katherine Denby & Riaz Bhunnoo & Daniel Morton & Lucy Stanbrough & Barnaby Coupe & Vanessa Pilley & Tim Benton & Pete Falloon & Tom K. Matthews & Saher Hasnain & John S. He, 2023. "Scoping Potential Routes to UK Civil Unrest via the Food System: Results of a Structured Expert Elicitation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:20:p:14783-:d:1258106
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Kornhuber & Dim Coumou & Elisabeth Vogel & Corey Lesk & Jonathan F. Donges & Jascha Lehmann & Radley M. Horton, 2020. "Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 48-53, January.
    2. Davide Natalini & Giangiacomo Bravo & Aled Wynne Jones, 2019. "Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(5), pages 1153-1173, October.
    3. Davide Natalini & Aled Wynne Jones & Giangiacomo Bravo, 2015. "Quantitative Assessment of Political Fragility Indices and Food Prices as Indicators of Food Riots in Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-26, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aled Jones & Sarah Bridle & Pete Falloon & Jez Fredenburgh & Christian Reynolds, 2024. "Results of a Survey of UK Farmers on Food System Vulnerability over the Short and Long Term," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-14, August.

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