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Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Kornhuber

    (Columbia University
    Climate Analytics
    German Council on Foreign Relations)

  • Corey Lesk

    (Columbia University
    Dartmouth College)

  • Carl F. Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys) and the Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Jonas Jägermeyr

    (Center for Climate Systems Research
    Columbia University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Peter Pfleiderer

    (Climate Analytics
    Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys) and the Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Radley M. Horton

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Kornhuber & Corey Lesk & Carl F. Schleussner & Jonas Jägermeyr & Peter Pfleiderer & Radley M. Horton, 2023. "Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-38906-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Lifei Lin & Chundi Hu & Bin Wang & Renguang Wu & Zeming Wu & Song Yang & Wenju Cai & Peiliang Li & Xuejun Xiong & Dake Chen, 2024. "Atlantic origin of the increasing Asian westerly jet interannual variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Van Vyve, Mathieu, 2024. "Identifying when thresholds from the Paris Agreement are breached : the minmax average, a novel smoothing approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024004, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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