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Urbanization and environmental policy effects on the future availability of grazing resources on the Mongolian Plateau: Modeling socio-environmental system dynamics

Author

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  • Allington, Ginger R.H.
  • Li, Wei
  • Brown, Daniel G.

Abstract

The rangelands of the Mongolian Plateau are dynamic socio-environmental systems that are influenced by a complex network of drivers, including climate, social institutions, market forces, and national-scale policies affecting land access and management. The sustainability and resilience of rangelands in this region depend on the ability of residents and policy makers to quickly respond by adapting livelihoods and land uses to changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions, but the responses of the system to these changes are often non-linear and difficult to predict. We developed a system dynamics model to understand how the human, natural, and land-use processes in the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem interact to produce dynamic outcomes in both grassland productivity and livestock populations. We developed two separate models based on a common integrative framework for two case study areas: Suhkbaatar Aimag in Mongolia and Xilingol League in Inner Mongolia. We used future scenarios for each region generated with stakeholder input to forecast trends in grassland area, livestock numbers, and biomass under alternative climate, socioeconomic, and land-use futures. By incorporating stakeholder-developed scenarios, we were able to explore future scenarios tailored to the particular questions and concerns relevant to the individual study areas. We find that while there are many similarities in the factors driving system dynamics in the two countries, the trajectories of key grassland resources are quite different, both between the two study regions and across the individual scenarios. Environmental policies play a key role in Xilingol, while economic development is a key driver in Sukhbaatar. Urbanization dynamics will be a major influence on the availability of grassland resources in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Allington, Ginger R.H. & Li, Wei & Brown, Daniel G., 2017. "Urbanization and environmental policy effects on the future availability of grazing resources on the Mongolian Plateau: Modeling socio-environmental system dynamics," Environmental Science & Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 35-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enscpo:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:35-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2016.11.005
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wenjing Wang & Tong Wu & Yuanzheng Li & Shilin Xie & Baolong Han & Hua Zheng & Zhiyun Ouyang, 2020. "Urbanization Impacts on Natural Habitat and Ecosystem Services in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao “Megacity”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Patricia Chica-Morales & Victor F. Muñoz & Antonio J. Domenech, 2021. "System Dynamics as Ex Ante Impact Assessment Tool in International Development Cooperation: Study Case of Urban Sustainability Policies in Darkhan, Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    3. Jiamin Liu & Hao Wang & Butian Tang & Le Hui & Weijuan Zhang & Liwei Zhang & Lei Jiao, 2023. "Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs/Synergies during Urbanization in the Loess Plateau, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Fangjie Pan & Nannan Shu & Qing Wan & Qi Huang, 2023. "Land Use Function Transition and Associated Ecosystem Service Value Effects Based on Production–Living–Ecological Space: A Case Study in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Xiang Zhou & Yasushi Yamaguchi, 2018. "Relative Importance of Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers on the Dynamics of Aboveground Biomass across Agro-Ecological Zones on the Mongolian Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Daniela Zuzolo & Carmine Guarino & Christian Formato & Maria Tartaglia & Rosaria Sciarrillo & Bruno Paura & Antonello Prigioniero, 2021. "Divide et Disperda: Thirty Years of Fragmentation and Impacts on the Eco-Mosaic in the Case Study of the Metropolitan City of Naples," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Ming Lu & Zhuolin Tan & Chao Yuan & Yu Dong & Wei Dong, 2023. "Resilience Measurements and Dynamics of Resource-Based Cities in Heilongjiang Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    8. Yanqiong Zhao & Jinhua Cheng & Yongguang Zhu & Yanpu Zhao, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Regional Differences in the Production-Living-Ecological Space of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-19, November.
    9. Xinxin Fu & Xiaofeng Wang & Jitao Zhou & Jiahao Ma, 2021. "Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Yunfeng Hu & Batu Nacun, 2018. "An Analysis of Land-Use Change and Grassland Degradation from a Policy Perspective in Inner Mongolia, China, 1990–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.

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