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Evaluation of GHG Emission Measures Based on Shipping and Shipbuilding Market Forecasting

Author

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  • Yujiro Wada

    (Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8527, Japan)

  • Tatsumi Yamamura

    (Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8527, Japan)

  • Kunihiro Hamada

    (Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 739-8527, Japan)

  • Shinnosuke Wanaka

    (Knowledge and Data System Department, National Maritime Research Institute, 6-38-1 Shinkawa, Mitaka-shi, Tokyo 181-0004, Japan)

Abstract

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global shipping sector have been increasing due to global economic growth. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal of halving GHG emissions from the global shipping sector by 2050 as compared with 2008 levels, and has responded by introducing several international regulations to reduce the GHG emissions of maritime transportation. The impact of GHG emissions’ regulation and measures to curb them have been evaluated in the IMO’s GHG studies. However, the long-term influence of these GHG emission measures has not yet been assessed. Additionally, the impact of various GHG reduction measures on the shipping and shipbuilding markets has not been considered; accordingly, there is room for improvement in the estimation of GHG emissions. Therefore, in this study, a model to consider GHG emission scenarios for the maritime transportation sector was developed using system dynamics and was integrated into a shipping and shipbuilding market model. The developed model was validated based on actual results and estimation results taken from a previous study. Subsequently, simulations were conducted, allowing us to evaluate the impact and effectiveness of GHG emission-curbing measures using the proposed model. Concretely, we conducted an evaluation of the effects of current and future measures, especially ship speed reduction, transition to liquid natural gas (LNG) fuel, promotion of energy efficiency design index (EEDI) regulation, and introduction of zero-emission ships, for GHG emission reduction. Additionally, we conducted an evaluation of the combination of current and future measures. The results showed that it is difficult to achieve the IMO goals for 2050 by combining only current measures and that the introduction of zero-emission ships is necessary to achieve the goals. Moreover, the limits of ship speed reduction were discussed quantitatively in relation to the maritime market aspect, and it was found that the feasible limit of ship speed reduction from a maritime market perspective was approximately 50%.

Suggested Citation

  • Yujiro Wada & Tatsumi Yamamura & Kunihiro Hamada & Shinnosuke Wanaka, 2021. "Evaluation of GHG Emission Measures Based on Shipping and Shipbuilding Market Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:5:p:2760-:d:510165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karin Gourdon, 2019. "An analysis of market-distorting factors in shipbuilding: The role of government interventions," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 67, OECD Publishing.
    2. Elizabeth Lindstad & Agathe Rialland, 2020. "LNG and Cruise Ships, an Easy Way to Fulfil Regulations—Versus the Need for Reducing GHG Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Steve Engelen & Hilda Meersman & Eddy Van De Voorde, 2006. "Using system dynamics in maritime economics: an endogenous decision model for shipowners in the dry bulk sector," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 141-158, May.
    4. Juneseuk Shin & Young-Mo Lim, 2014. "An empirical model of changing global competition in the shipbuilding industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 515-527, November.
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    2. Chen, Xinqiang & Lv, Siying & Shang, Wen-long & Wu, Huafeng & Xian, Jiangfeng & Song, Chengcheng, 2024. "Ship energy consumption analysis and carbon emission exploitation via spatial-temporal maritime data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    3. Hu, Wenfa & He, Xinhua, 2024. "The role of fiscal policies in supporting a transition to a low-carbon economy: Evidence from the Chinese shipping industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Godinho, João & Hoefnagels, Ric & Braz, Catarina G. & Sousa, Ana M. & Granjo, José F.O., 2023. "An economic and greenhouse gas footprint assessment of international maritime transportation of hydrogen using liquid organic hydrogen carriers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).

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