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Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan

Author

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  • Naveed Ahmed

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Process and Ecological Regulations, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    These authors equally contributed to this study.)

  • Haishen Lü

    (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

  • Shakeel Ahmed

    (Project Management Office (PMO) for Punjab Barrages, Rehabilitation & Modernization Projects, Punjab Irrigation Department, Lahore 39571, Pakistan)

  • Ghulam Nabi

    (Center of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, Pakistan)

  • Muhammad Abdul Wajid

    (Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan)

  • Aamir Shakoor

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 66000, Pakistan
    These authors equally contributed to this study.)

  • Hafiz Umar Farid

    (Department of Agricultural Engineering, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan 66000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Sustainable management of canal water through optimum water allocation is the need of the modern world due to the rapid rise in water demand and climatic variations. The present research was conducted at the Chaj Doab, Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) of Pakistan, using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model. Six different scenarios were developed, and the results showed that the current available surface water is not sufficient to meet crop water demands. The Lower Jhelum Canal (LJC) command area is more sensitive to water scarcity than the Upper Jhelum Canal (UJC). The future (up to 2070) climate change scenarios for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 showed a decrease in catchment reliability up to 26.80 and 26.28% for UJC as well as 27.56 and 27.31% for LJC catchment, respectively. We concluded that scenario 3 (irrigation efficiency improvement through implementation of a high efficiency irrigation system, canal lining, reduction and replacement of high delta crops with low delta crops) was sufficient to reduce the canal water deficit in order to optimize canal water allocation. Improvement in the irrigation system and cropping area should be optimized for efficient canal water management.

Suggested Citation

  • Naveed Ahmed & Haishen Lü & Shakeel Ahmed & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Abdul Wajid & Aamir Shakoor & Hafiz Umar Farid, 2021. "Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:16:p:8695-:d:608163
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    References listed on IDEAS

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