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Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model

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  • Tingju Zhu
  • Claudia Ringler
  • M. Mohsin Iqbal
  • Timothy B. Sulser
  • M. Arif Goheer

Abstract

Climate change is expected to considerably affect the water resources in the Indus River basin in Pakistan and thus agricultural production in the country. This article reports an analysis of the impacts of various climate scenarios on both water resources and food production out to 2050. While changes in water availability range from -12% to +24%, depending on the scenario, crop yield and production impacts are negative across all scenarios, and net food imports increase. We suggest a combination of accelerated investment in agricultural research and increased water-use efficiency in agriculture to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on water and food.

Suggested Citation

  • Tingju Zhu & Claudia Ringler & M. Mohsin Iqbal & Timothy B. Sulser & M. Arif Goheer, 2013. "Climate change impacts and adaptation options for water and food in Pakistan: scenario analysis using an integrated global water and food projections model," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 651-669, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rwinxx:v:38:y:2013:i:5:p:651-669
    DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2013.830682
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ahmad, Shahid, 2004. "Drought mitigation in Pakistan: current status and options for future strategies," IWMI Working Papers H036235, International Water Management Institute.
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    1. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Taheripour, Farzad & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2013. "Water Scarcity and International Agricultural Trade," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 155248, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Raza, Amar & Ahmad, Munir, 2015. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Productivity in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zoia Arshad Awan & Tasneem Khaliq & Muhammad Masood Akhtar & Asad Imran & Muhammad Irfan & Muhammad Jarrar Ahmed & Ashfaq Ahmad, 2021. "Building Climate-Resilient Cotton Production System for Changing Climate Scenarios Using the DSSAT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-26, September.
    4. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    5. Muhammad Ali Imran & Asghar Ali & Muhammad Ashfaq & Sarfraz Hassan & Richard Culas & Chunbo Ma, 2018. "Impact of Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) Practices on Cotton Production and Livelihood of Farmers in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Kirby, Mac & Ahmad, Mobin-ud-Din & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Khaliq, Tasneem & Cheema, M.J.M., 2017. "Agricultural production, water use and food availability in Pakistan: Historical trends, and projections to 2050," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 34-46.
    7. Naveed Ahmed & Haishen Lü & Shakeel Ahmed & Ghulam Nabi & Muhammad Abdul Wajid & Aamir Shakoor & Hafiz Umar Farid, 2021. "Irrigation Supply and Demand, Land Use/Cover Change and Future Projections of Climate, in Indus Basin Irrigation System, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.

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