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A Hybrid GIS and AHP Approach for Modelling Actual and Future Forest Fire Risk Under Climate Change Accounting Water Resources Attenuation Role

Author

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  • Gianluigi Busico

    (DiSTABiF—Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Via Vivaldi 43, 81100 Caserta, Italy)

  • Elisabetta Giuditta

    (DiSTABiF—Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Campania University “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Via Vivaldi 43, 81100 Caserta, Italy)

  • Nerantzis Kazakis

    (Department of Geology, Laboratory of Engineering Geology Hydrogeology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Nicolò Colombani

    (Department of Materials, Environmental Sciences and Urban Planning, Polytechnic University of Marche, Via Brecce Bianche 12, 60131 Ancona, Italy)

Abstract

Forest wildfires usually occur due to natural processes such as lightning and volcanic eruptions, but at the same time they are also an effect of uncontrolled and illegal anthropogenic activities. Different factors can influence forest wildfires, like the type of vegetation, morphology, climate, and proximity to human activities. A precise evaluation of forest fire issues and of the countermeasures needed to limit their impact could be satisfactory especially when forest fire risk (FFR) mapping is available. Here, we proposed an FFR evaluation methodology based on Geographic Information System (GIS) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is the Campania region (Southern Italy) that, for the last 30 years, has been affected by numerous wildfires. The proposed methodology analyzed 12 factors, and AHP was used for weight assignment, offering a new approach to some parameters. The method divided the study area into five risk classes, from very low to very high. Validation with fire alerts showed a good correlation between observed and predicted fires (0.79 R 2 ). Analyzing the climate projections, a future FFR for 2040 was also assessed. The proposed methodology represents a reliable screening tool to identify areas under forest fire risk, and can help authorities to direct preventive actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluigi Busico & Elisabetta Giuditta & Nerantzis Kazakis & Nicolò Colombani, 2019. "A Hybrid GIS and AHP Approach for Modelling Actual and Future Forest Fire Risk Under Climate Change Accounting Water Resources Attenuation Role," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:24:p:7166-:d:297923
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