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GIS-based forest fire susceptibility modeling in Pauri Garhwal, India: a comparative assessment of frequency ratio, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy modeling techniques

Author

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  • Anuj Tiwari

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

  • Mohammad Shoab

    (Shaqra University)

  • Abhilasha Dixit

    (Indian Institute of Technology)

Abstract

This study performs a comparative evaluation of Frequency Ratio (FR), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) modeling techniques for forest fire susceptibility mapping in Pauri Garhwal, Uttarakhand, India. Locations of past forest fire events reported from November 2002 to July 2019 were collected from the Uttarakhand Forest Department and Forest Survey of India and combined with the ground observations obtained from the manual survey. Then, the locations were categorized into two groups of 70% (10,500 locations) and 30% (4500 locations), randomly, for training and validation purposes, respectively. Forest fire susceptibility mapping was performed on the basis of fourteen different topographic, biological, human-induced and climatic criteria such as Digital Elevation Model, Slope, Aspect, Curvature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Moisture Index, Topographic Wetness Index, Soil, Distance to Settlement, Distance to Road, Distance to Drainage, Rainfall, Temperature, and Wind Speed. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) were implemented for validation of the three achieved Forest Fire Susceptibility Maps. The AUC plot evaluation revealed that FAHP has a maximum prediction accuracy of 83.47%, followed by AHP (81.75%) and FR (77.21%). Thus, the map produced by FAHP exhibits the most satisfactory properties. Results and findings of this study will help in developing more efficient fire management strategies in both the open and the protected forest areas (Rajaji and Jim Corbett National Park) of the district.

Suggested Citation

  • Anuj Tiwari & Mohammad Shoab & Abhilasha Dixit, 2021. "GIS-based forest fire susceptibility modeling in Pauri Garhwal, India: a comparative assessment of frequency ratio, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy modeling techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1189-1230, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:105:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-020-04351-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04351-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdel Rahman Al-Shabeeb & Ibraheem Hamdan & Sedigheh Meimandi Parizi & A’kif Al-Fugara & Sana’a Odat & Ismail Elkhrachy & Tongxin Hu & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2023. "A Comparative Study of Genetic Algorithm-Based Ensemble Models and Knowledge-Based Models for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, November.
    2. Hazem Ghassan Abdo & Hussein Almohamad & Ahmed Abdullah Al Dughairi & Motirh Al-Mutiry, 2022. "GIS-Based Frequency Ratio and Analytic Hierarchy Process for Forest Fire Susceptibility Mapping in the Western Region of Syria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Yucel Gulluce, 2021. "A LabVIEW-based fire monitoring software using multi-criteria AHP approach for detecting geolocation of wildfire," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1849-1876, November.

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