IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v139y2020ics0960077920304124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

Author

Listed:
  • Rafiq, Danish
  • Suhail, Suhail Ahmad
  • Bazaz, Mohammad Abid

Abstract

In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafiq, Danish & Suhail, Suhail Ahmad & Bazaz, Mohammad Abid, 2020. "Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920304124
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Mandal, Manotosh & Jana, Soovoojeet & Nandi, Swapan Kumar & Khatua, Anupam & Adak, Sayani & Kar, T.K., 2020. "A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nita H. Shah & Ankush H. Suthar & Ekta N. Jayswal & Ankit Sikarwar, 2021. "Fractional SIR-Model for Estimating Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in India," J, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Katarzyna Czech & Anna Davy & Michał Wielechowski, 2021. "Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Change Human Mobility Equally Worldwide? Cross-Country Cluster Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pelinovsky, Efim & Kurkin, Andrey & Kurkina, Oxana & Kokoulina, Maria & Epifanova, Anastasia, 2020. "Logistic equation and COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Kumar Das, Dhiraj & Khatua, Anupam & Kar, T.K. & Jana, Soovoojeet, 2021. "The effectiveness of contact tracing in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak: A model-based analysis in the context of India," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    3. Paul, James Nicodemus & Mbalawata, Isambi Sailon & Mirau, Silas Steven & Masandawa, Lemjini, 2023. "Mathematical modeling of vaccination as a control measure of stress to fight COVID-19 infections," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Memon, Zaibunnisa & Qureshi, Sania & Memon, Bisharat Rasool, 2021. "Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Li, Tingting & Guo, Youming, 2022. "Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of a new COVID-19 model for Omicron strain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 606(C).
    7. Aldila, Dipo & Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H.A. & Safitri, Egi & Anwar, Yusril Rais & Bakry, Aanisah R.Q. & Samiadji, Brenda M. & Anugerah, Demas A. & GH, M. Farhan Alfarizi & Ayulani, Indri D. & Salim, Sheryl N, 2020. "A mathematical study on the spread of COVID-19 considering social distancing and rapid assessment: The case of Jakarta, Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Păcurar, Cristina-Maria & Necula, Bogdan-Radu, 2020. "An analysis of COVID-19 spread based on fractal interpolation and fractal dimension," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Masum, Mohammad & Masud, M.A. & Adnan, Muhaiminul Islam & Shahriar, Hossain & Kim, Sangil, 2022. "Comparative study of a mathematical epidemic model, statistical modeling, and deep learning for COVID-19 forecasting and management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Zahra Dehghan Shabani & Rouhollah Shahnazi, 2020. "Spatial distribution dynamics and prediction of COVID‐19 in Asian countries: spatial Markov chain approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1005-1025, December.
    11. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Basnarkov, Lasko, 2021. "SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Mishra, A.M. & Purohit, S.D. & Owolabi, K.M. & Sharma, Y.D., 2020. "A nonlinear epidemiological model considering asymptotic and quarantine classes for SARS CoV-2 virus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Salgotra, Rohit & Gandomi, Mostafa & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Evolutionary modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic in fifteen most affected countries," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Ullah, Mohammad Sharif & Higazy, M. & Kabir, K.M. Ariful, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of mean-field and fractional-order epidemic vaccination strategies by evolutionary game approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    17. Faïçal Ndaïrou & Iván Area & Delfim F. M. Torres, 2020. "Mathematical Modeling of Japanese Encephalitis under Aquatic Environmental Effects," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-14, October.
    18. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    19. Rabih Ghostine & Mohamad Gharamti & Sally Hassrouny & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "Mathematical Modeling of Immune Responses against SARS-CoV-2 Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-13, September.
    20. Usama H. Issa & Ashraf Balabel & Mohammed Abdelhakeem & Medhat M. A. Osman, 2021. "Developing a Risk Model for Assessment and Control of the Spread of COVID-19," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.