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Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

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  • Rafiq, Danish
  • Suhail, Suhail Ahmad
  • Bazaz, Mohammad Abid

Abstract

In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafiq, Danish & Suhail, Suhail Ahmad & Bazaz, Mohammad Abid, 2020. "Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ndaïrou, Faïçal & Area, Iván & Nieto, Juan J. & Torres, Delfim F.M., 2020. "Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Mandal, Manotosh & Jana, Soovoojeet & Nandi, Swapan Kumar & Khatua, Anupam & Adak, Sayani & Kar, T.K., 2020. "A model based study on the dynamics of COVID-19: Prediction and control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Nita H. Shah & Ankush H. Suthar & Ekta N. Jayswal & Ankit Sikarwar, 2021. "Fractional SIR-Model for Estimating Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in India," J, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Katarzyna Czech & Anna Davy & Michał Wielechowski, 2021. "Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Change Human Mobility Equally Worldwide? Cross-Country Cluster Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Lokman Gunduz & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Rifgi Bugra Bagci & Hatice Karahan, 2024. "Explosive Behavior in COVID-19 and Policy Responses: Lessons Learned for Public Health Management," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(1), pages 21582440231, March.

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