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Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Author

Listed:
  • I. A. Lakman

    (Bashkir State University)

  • R. A. Askarov

    (Ordzhonikidze Russian State Geological Prospecting University)

  • V. B. Prudnikov

    (Bashkir State University)

  • Z. F. Askarova

    (Bashkir State University)

  • V. M. Timiryanova

    (Bashkir State University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee–Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20–54 for men and 20–64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0–4 years for both sexes.

Suggested Citation

  • I. A. Lakman & R. A. Askarov & V. B. Prudnikov & Z. F. Askarova & V. M. Timiryanova, 2021. "Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 536-548, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:32:y:2021:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700721050063
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700721050063
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