IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v8y2020i2p152-d311641.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Data-Driven Model

Author

Listed:
  • Su-qi Zhang

    (Department of computer science, Tianjin University of Commerce, Tianjin 300134, China)

  • Kuo-Ping Lin

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Enterprise Information, Tunghai University, Taichung 40704, Taiwan)

Abstract

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is the technical basis of the intelligent transportation system (ITS). Higher precision, short-term traffic flow forecasting plays an important role in alleviating road congestion and improving traffic management efficiency. In order to improve the accuracy of short-term traffic flow forecasting, an improved bird swarm optimizer (IBSA) is used to optimize the random parameters of the extreme learning machine (ELM). In addition, the improved bird swarm optimization extreme learning machine (IBSAELM) model is established to predict short-term traffic flow. The main researches in this paper are as follows: (1) The bird swarm optimizer (BSA) is prone to fall into the local optimum, so the distribution mechanism of the BSA optimizer is improved. The first five percent of the particles with better fitness values are selected as producers. The last ten percent of the particles with worse fitness values are selected as beggars. (2) The one-day and two-day traffic flows are predicted by the support vector machine (SVM), particle swarm optimization support vector machine (PSOSVM), bird swarm optimization extreme learning machine (BSAELM) and IBSAELM models, respectively. (3) The prediction results of the models are evaluated. For the one-day traffic flow sequence, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the IBSAELM model are smaller than the SVM, PSOSVM and BSAELM models, respectively. The experimental analysis results show that the IBSAELM model proposed in this study can meet the actual engineering requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Su-qi Zhang & Kuo-Ping Lin, 2020. "Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Data-Driven Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:152-:d:311641
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/2/152/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/2/152/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheng, Anyu & Jiang, Xiao & Li, Yongfu & Zhang, Chao & Zhu, Hao, 2017. "Multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction using the chaos theory and support vector regression method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 422-434.
    2. Meng Hui & Lin Bai & YanBo Li & QiSheng Wu, 2015. "Highway Traffic Flow Nonlinear Character Analysis and Prediction," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-7, September.
    3. Cocco Mariani, Viviana & Hennings Och, Stephan & dos Santos Coelho, Leandro & Domingues, Eric, 2019. "Pressure prediction of a spark ignition single cylinder engine using optimized extreme learning machine models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 204-221.
    4. Kuihua Wu & Kun Li & Rong Liang & Runze Ma & Yuxuan Zhao & Jian Wang & Lujie Qi & Shengyuan Liu & Chang Han & Li Yang & Minxiang Huang, 2018. "A Joint Planning Method for Substations and Lines in Distribution Systems Based on the Parallel Bird Swarm Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-14, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xing Wan & Xing-Quan Zuo & Xin-Chao Zhao, 2021. "A Surrogate Model-Based Hybrid Approach for Stochastic Robust Double Row Layout Problem," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-18, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao & Lingling Pei, 2017. "Forecasting the Short-Term Traffic Flow in the Intelligent Transportation System Based on an Inertia Nonhomogenous Discrete Gray Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-16, July.
    2. Zhang, Weibin & Zha, Huazhu & Zhang, Shuai & Ma, Lei, 2023. "Road section traffic flow prediction method based on the traffic factor state network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    3. Cai, Lingru & Zhang, Zhanchang & Yang, Junjie & Yu, Yidan & Zhou, Teng & Qin, Jing, 2019. "A noise-immune Kalman filter for short-term traffic flow forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    4. Li, Yunfeng & Xue, Wenli & Wu, Ting & Wang, Huaizhi & Zhou, Bin & Aziz, Saddam & He, Yang, 2021. "Intrusion detection of cyber physical energy system based on multivariate ensemble classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Yurii Gutarevych & Vasyl Mateichyk & Jonas Matijošius & Alfredas Rimkus & Igor Gritsuk & Oleksander Syrota & Yevheniy Shuba, 2020. "Improving Fuel Economy of Spark Ignition Engines Applying the Combined Method of Power Regulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Li, Ji & Wu, Dawei & Mohammadsami Attar, Hassan & Xu, Hongming, 2022. "Geometric neuro-fuzzy transfer learning for in-cylinder pressure modelling of a diesel engine fuelled with raw microalgae oil," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    7. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios & Bezzina, Frank, 2020. "Multi-fluctuation nonlinear patterns of European financial markets based on adaptive filtering with application to family business, green, Islamic, common stocks, and comparison with Bitcoin, NASDAQ, ," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    8. Elena Karnoukhova & Anastasia Stepanova & Maria Kokoreva, 2018. "The Influence Of The Ownership Structure On The Performance Of Innovative Companies In The Us," HSE Working papers WP BRP 70/FE/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao, 2019. "A Multimode Dynamic Short-Term Traffic Flow Grey Prediction Model of High-Dimension Tensors," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-18, June.
    10. Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro & Stéfano Frizzo Stefenon & José Donizetti de Lima & Ademir Nied & Viviana Cocco Mariani & Leandro dos Santos Coelho, 2020. "Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Self-Adaptive Decomposition and Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Li, Ji & Zhou, Quan & He, Xu & Chen, Wan & Xu, Hongming, 2023. "Data-driven enabling technologies in soft sensors of modern internal combustion engines: Perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    12. Anton Aleshkin, 2021. "The Influence of Transport Link Density on Conductivity If Junctions and/or Links Are Blocked," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Wang, Jujie & Cui, Quan & He, Maolin, 2022. "Hybrid intelligent framework for carbon price prediction using improved variational mode decomposition and optimal extreme learning machine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    14. Cesar de Lima Nogueira, Silvio & Och, Stephan Hennings & Moura, Luis Mauro & Domingues, Eric & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Mariani, Viviana Cocco, 2023. "Prediction of the NOx and CO2 emissions from an experimental dual fuel engine using optimized random forest combined with feature engineering," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    15. Wu, Jiaxin & Zhou, Xubing & Peng, Yi & Zhao, Xiaojun, 2022. "Recurrence analysis of urban traffic congestion index on multi-scale," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    16. Ling Shen & Jian Lu & Dongdong Geng & Ling Deng, 2020. "Peak Traffic Flow Predictions: Exploiting Toll Data from Large Expressway Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Liu, Qingchao & Cai, Yingfeng & Jiang, Haobin & Lu, Jian & Chen, Long, 2018. "Traffic state prediction using ISOMAP manifold learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 532-541.
    18. Huang, Hai-chao & He, Hong-di & Zhang, Zhe & Ma, Qing-hai & Xue, Xing-kuo & Zhang, Wen-xiu, 2024. "Variable-length traffic state prediction and applications for urban network with adaptive signal timing plan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    19. Liu, Jinlong & Huang, Qiao & Ulishney, Christopher & Dumitrescu, Cosmin E., 2021. "Machine learning assisted prediction of exhaust gas temperature of a heavy-duty natural gas spark ignition engine," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    20. Wang, Ke & Ma, Changxi & Qiao, Yihuan & Lu, Xijin & Hao, Weining & Dong, Sheng, 2021. "A hybrid deep learning model with 1DCNN-LSTM-Attention networks for short-term traffic flow prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:2:p:152-:d:311641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.