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Optimal Control for an Epidemic Model of COVID-19 with Time-Varying Parameters

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  • Yiheng Li

    (Department of Mathematics, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China)

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted public health and economies worldwide. In this paper, we investigate an optimal control problem to simultaneously minimize the epidemic size and control costs associated with intervention strategies based on official data. Considering people with undetected infections, we establish a control system of COVID-19 with time-varying parameters. To estimate these parameters, a parameter identification scheme is adopted and a mixed algorithm is constructed. Moreover, we present an optimal control problem with two objectives that involve the newly increased number of infected individuals and the control costs. A numerical scheme is conducted, simulating the epidemic data pertaining to Shanghai during the period of 2022, caused by the Omicron variant. Coefficient combinations of the objectives are obtained, and the optimal control measures for different infection peaks are indicated. The numerical results suggest that the identification variables obtained by using the constructed mixed algorithm to solve the parameter identification problem are feasible. Optimal control measures for different epidemic peaks can serve as references for decision-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiheng Li, 2024. "Optimal Control for an Epidemic Model of COVID-19 with Time-Varying Parameters," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-15, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:12:y:2024:i:10:p:1484-:d:1391829
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ullah, Saif & Khan, Muhammad Altaf, 2020. "Modeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of novel coronavirus with optimal control analysis with a case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Zhang, Ge & Li, Zhiming & Din, Anwarud & Chen, Tao, 2024. "Dynamic analysis and optimal control of a stochastic COVID-19 model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 498-517.
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