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Construction of Ecological Security Patterns and Evaluation of Ecological Network Stability under Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study in Desert–Oasis Area of the Yellow River Basin, China

Author

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  • Wenhao Cheng

    (College of Urban and Environment Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China
    College of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, No.539 Helanshan West Road, Yinchuan 750021, China)

  • Caihong Ma

    (College of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, No.539 Helanshan West Road, Yinchuan 750021, China)

  • Tongsheng Li

    (College of Urban and Environment Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, China)

  • Yuanyuan Liu

    (College of Geography and Planning, Ningxia University, No.539 Helanshan West Road, Yinchuan 750021, China)

Abstract

Land use change has a significant impact on the sustainability of ecosystems, and ecological security patterns (ESPs) can improve environmental quality through spatial planning. This study explored a multi-scenario ESP framework by integrating future land use simulation (FLUS) and minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) for urban agglomeration along the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in Ningxia. The research involved simulating land use change in 2035 under four development scenarios, identifying ecological security networks, and evaluating network stability for each scenario. The study revealed that the ecological sources under different development scenarios, including a natural development scenario (NDS), an economic development scenario (EDS), a food security scenario (FSS), and an ecological protection scenario (EPS), were 834.82 km 2 , 715.46 km 2 , 785.56 km 2 , and 1091.43 km 2 , respectively. The overall connectivity values ( O G ) for these scenarios were 0.351, 0.466, 0.334, and 0.520, respectively. It was found that under an EPS, the ESPs had the largest area of ecological sources and the most stable ecological network structure, which can effectively protect natural habitats. This study provides a valuable method for identifying ESPs that can respond to diversity and the uncertainty of future development. It can assist decision-makers in enhancing the ecological quality of the study area while considering various development scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenhao Cheng & Caihong Ma & Tongsheng Li & Yuanyuan Liu, 2024. "Construction of Ecological Security Patterns and Evaluation of Ecological Network Stability under Multi-Scenario Simulation: A Case Study in Desert–Oasis Area of the Yellow River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:7:p:1037-:d:1432598
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Men, Dan & Pan, Jinghu, 2023. "Ecological network identification and connectivity robustness evaluation in the Yellow River Basin under a multi-scenario simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    2. Guoqing Chen & Saifei Wang, 2023. "Evaluation of Urban Resource Environmental Carrying Capacity and Land Spatial Development Suitability in a Semiarid Area of the Yellow River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Upadhyay, Shashankaditya & Roy, Arijit & Ramprakash, M. & Idiculla, Jobin & Kumar, A. Senthil & Bhattacharya, Sudeepto, 2017. "A network theoretic study of ecological connectivity in Western Himalayas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 246-257.
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