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Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China

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  • Kun Zhang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Yu Wang

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Ali Mamtimin

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Yongqiang Liu

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Lifang Zhang

    (College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China)

  • Jiacheng Gao

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Ailiyaer Aihaiti

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Cong Wen

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Meiqi Song

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Fan Yang

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Chenglong Zhou

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

  • Wen Huo

    (Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    National Observation and Research Station of Desert Meteorology, Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China
    Taklimakan Desert Meteorology Field Experiment Station of China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
    Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Desert Meteorology and Sandstorm, Urumqi 830002, China)

Abstract

Intensive economic and human activities present challenges to the carbon storage capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in arid regions that are sensitive to climate change and ecologically fragile. Therefore, accurately estimating and simulating future changes in carbon stocks on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) holds great significance for maintaining ecosystem stability, achieving high-quality development of the economic belt, and realizing the goal of “carbon neutrality” by 2050. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the NSEBTM carbon stocks in arid regions from 1990 to 2050, utilizing a combination of multi-source data and integrating the Patch-generating Land use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. Additionally, an attribution analysis of carbon stock changes is conducted by leveraging land use data. The findings demonstrate that (1) the NSEBTM predominantly consists of underutilized land, accounting for more than 60% of the total land area in the NSEBTM. Unused land, grassland, and water bodies exhibit a declining trend over time, while other forms of land use demonstrate an increasing trend. (2) Grassland serves as the primary reservoir for carbon storage in the NSEBTM, with grassland degradation being the leading cause of carbon loss amounting to 102.35 t over the past three decades. (3) Under the ecological conservation scenario for 2050 compared to the natural development scenario, there was a net increase in carbon storage by 12.34 t; however, under the economic development scenario compared to the natural development scenario, there was a decrease in carbon storage by 25.88 t. By quantitatively evaluating the land use change in the NSEBTM and its impact on carbon storage in the past and projected for the next 30 years, this paper provides scientific references and precise data support for the territorial and spatial decision making of the NSEBTM, thereby facilitating the achievement of “carbon neutrality” goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Kun Zhang & Yu Wang & Ali Mamtimin & Yongqiang Liu & Lifang Zhang & Jiacheng Gao & Ailiyaer Aihaiti & Cong Wen & Meiqi Song & Fan Yang & Chenglong Zhou & Wen Huo, 2024. "Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Spatial–Temporal Variation in Carbon Storage in the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:5:p:608-:d:1387118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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