Strategies to Mitigate the Deteriorating Habitat Quality in Dong Trieu District, Vietnam

Dong Trieu district is a vital connection for territorial ecological security and human welfare between Hanoi (the capital of Vietnam) and Quang Ninh province. Therefore, habitat quality (HQ) is of extraordinary importance to the area’s sustainable development. The ArcGIS platform, Dyna-CLUE, and InVEST models were utilized in this study to assess the spatial and temporal transformations of land use and the changes of HQ in 2030 under various scenarios, with intentions to find strategies that may mitigate the HQ’s deteriorating trend in the district. Simulated results indicated that, assuming the development is maintained as usual, the average HQ of the District at 2030 could diminish by 0.044 from that of 2019 (a four-times decrease compared to the previous decade). Cases comprised of four basic scenarios, including development as usual, built-up expansion slowdown, forest protection emphasized, and agricultural land conversion, were used to identify potential strategies to mitigate the deteriorating trend. Simulated results revealed that keeping the built-up expansion rate lower than 100 ha y −1 , the deforestation rate lower than 20 ha y −1 , and preferring orchards over agricultural land conversion is required to limit the drop in HQ to within 0.01 in the next decade. Other than the existing population growth control policy, new guidelines such as (1) changing urban expansion type from outward to upward to control the built-up expansion rate, (2) substituting forest-harming industries to forest-preservation industries to reduce deforestation rate, (3) encouraging orchards preferred over agricultural land conversion to increase incomes while maintaining higher habitat quality, (4) practicing better farming technologies to improve crop production and to alleviate potential food security issues due to considerable reduction in cropland, and (5) promoting Green Infrastructure and the Belt and Road Initiative to increase urban green cover and raise residents’ income should be considered in designing the new mitigation strategies.