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Exploring an integrated spatially model for land-use scenarios simulation in a metropolitan region

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  • Hashem Dadashpoor

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Hossein Panahi

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

Abstract

Spatial simulation of land-use change scenarios in metropolitan areas is essential for analyzing both the causes and consequences of various future scenarios and is also valuable for land-use planning and management. However, current simulation models primarily focus on spatial and rarely on quantitative driving factors. This article aims to simulate future scenarios of land-use changes in the Tehran metropolitan region (TMR) by combining different models to fill this gap. Thus, in the first step, land-use changes were analyzed in the period 1985, 2000, and 2015. Then, by identifying the impact of driving factors and land-use transition potentials with Logistic regression (LR), land-use changes were allocated using the Cellular Automata (CA) method. Finally, with the validation of the model, four scenarios of the current trend(CT), socioeconomic growth(SEG), ecological-oriented(EO), and integrated development(ID) were suggested with the combination of the System Dynamic (SD) model. The results show that the trend of land-use changes in TMR has led to the destruction of grassland, agricultural, and uncultivated lands and the continuation of this trend will increase the damage of built-up areas on valuable natural and ecological resources. In this way, proximity to roads, distance from built-up areas, and natural factors had the greatest impact on changes. Based on future scenarios in 2030, the change in the SEG-scenario shows a rapid increase in built-up areas (2858km2) and encroachment on agricultural lands (2171km2). In the EO-scenario, destruction of grassland and agricultural lands and the growth of built-up areas will be limited, while CT-scenario leads to the high growth of built-up areas along with destructive impacts on natural and open spaces. In the ID-scenario, the built-up areas and grasslands will increase to 2808km2 and 7438km2, respectively. Accordingly, policy-makers can use simulation of different scenarios to mitigate probable consequences of land-use changes in the metropolitan regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hashem Dadashpoor & Hossein Panahi, 2021. "Exploring an integrated spatially model for land-use scenarios simulation in a metropolitan region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13628-13649, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:23:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1007_s10668-021-01231-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01231-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henríquez-Dole, Lenin & Usón, Tomás J. & Vicuña, Sebastián & Henríquez, Cristián & Gironás, Jorge & Meza, Francisco, 2018. "Integrating strategic land use planning in the construction of future land use scenarios and its performance: The Maipo River Basin, Chile," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 353-366.
    2. Mehdi Sheikh Goodarzi & Yousef Sakieh & Shabnam Navardi, 2017. "Scenario-based urban growth allocation in a rapidly developing area: a modeling approach for sustainability analysis of an urban-coastal coupled system," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 1103-1126, June.
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    4. Hashem Dadashpoor & Mahboobeh Nateghi, 2017. "Simulating spatial pattern of urban growth using GIS-based SLEUTH model: a case study of eastern corridor of Tehran metropolitan region, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 527-547, April.
    5. Huiran Han & Chengfeng Yang & Jinping Song, 2015. "Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-20, April.
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    7. Hashem Dadashpoor & Fardis Salarian, 2020. "Urban sprawl on natural lands: analyzing and predicting the trend of land use changes and sprawl in Mazandaran city region, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 593-614, February.
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    1. Parviz Azizi & Ali Soltani & Farokh Bagheri & Shahrzad Sharifi & Mehdi Mikaeili, 2022. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.

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