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Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Ziaul Haque Munim

    (School of Business and Law, University of Agder, 4630 Kristiansand, Norway
    Department of Maritime Operations, University of South-Eastern Norway, 3184 Borre, Norway)

  • Mohammad Hassan Shakil

    (Taylor’s Business School, Taylor’s University, 47500 Subang Jaya, Malaysia)

  • Ilan Alon

    (School of Business and Law, University of Agder, 4630 Kristiansand, Norway)

Abstract

This study analyzes forecasts of Bitcoin price using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and neural network autoregression (NNAR) models. Employing the static forecast approach, we forecast next-day Bitcoin price both with and without re-estimation of the forecast model for each step. For cross-validation of forecast results, we consider two different training and test samples. In the first training-sample, NNAR performs better than ARIMA, while ARIMA outperforms NNAR in the second training-sample. Additionally, ARIMA with model re-estimation at each step outperforms NNAR in the two test-sample forecast periods. The Diebold Mariano test confirms the superiority of forecast results of ARIMA model over NNAR in the test-sample periods. Forecast performance of ARIMA models with and without re-estimation are identical for the estimated test-sample periods. Despite the sophistication of NNAR, this paper demonstrates ARIMA enduring power of volatile Bitcoin price prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziaul Haque Munim & Mohammad Hassan Shakil & Ilan Alon, 2019. "Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:2:p:103-:d:241532
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Liping Yang, 2021. "Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast Based on Artificial intelligence Methods," Papers 2106.12961, arXiv.org.
    3. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Recent Advancements in Section “Financial Technology and Innovation”," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-2, December.
    4. Rico-Peña, Juan Jesús & Arguedas-Sanz, Raquel & López-Martin, Carmen, 2023. "Models used to characterise blockchain features. A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Nagula, Pavan Kumar & Alexakis, Christos, 2022. "A new hybrid machine learning model for predicting the bitcoin (BTC-USD) price," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    6. Shubhankar Mohapatra & Nauman Ahmed & Paulo Alencar, 2020. "KryptoOracle: A Real-Time Cryptocurrency Price Prediction Platform Using Twitter Sentiments," Papers 2003.04967, arXiv.org.
    7. Jingjing Li & Xinge Rao & Xianyi Li & Sihai Guan, 2022. "Gold and Bitcoin Optimal Portfolio Research and Analysis Based on Machine-Learning Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, November.
    8. Rama K. Malladi & Prakash L. Dheeriya, 2021. "Time series analysis of Cryptocurrency returns and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 75-94, January.
    9. Sudersan Behera & Sarat Chandra Nayak & A. V. S. Pavan Kumar, 2024. "Evaluating the Performance of Metaheuristic Based Artificial Neural Networks for Cryptocurrency Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1219-1258, August.
    10. Mohamed Khalil Benzekri & Hatice Şehime Özütler, 2021. "On the Predictability of Bitcoin Price Movements: A Short-term Price Prediction with ARIMA," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 8(2), pages 293-309, July.
    11. Stephen Chan & Jeffrey Chu & Yuanyuan Zhang & Saralees Nadarajah, 2020. "Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-3, September.
    12. Pawan Kumar Singh & Alok Kumar Pandey & S. C. Bose, 2023. "A new grey system approach to forecast closing price of Bitcoin, Bionic, Cardano, Dogecoin, Ethereum, XRP Cryptocurrencies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2429-2446, June.
    13. Seeber, Marco & Alon, Ilan & Pina, David G. & Piro, Fredrik Niclas & Seeber, Michele, 2022. "Predictors of applying for and winning an ERC Proof-of-Concept grant: An automated machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

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