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Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment

Author

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  • Al Mamun, Md
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah
  • Suleman, Muhammad Tahir
  • Kang, Sang Hoon

Abstract

We investigate the impact of geopolitical risk, global and US economic policy uncertainty on the structure of Bitcoin correlation with various financial and commodities asset classes. We further investigate the impact of the aforementioned factors on the volatility and risk premium of Bitcoin investment. We find that both geopolitical risk and global economic policy uncertainty command a risk premium, particularly in distress market conditions. Moreover, during the period of high policy uncertainty and worsening economic conditions, Bitcoin investors can only hedge their portfolio with gold, not with other financial assets. Our results highlight that the effect of geopolitical risk, global and US economic policy uncertainty is far more significant during unfavorable economic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Al Mamun, Md & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:540:y:2020:i:c:s0378437119317522
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.123107
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Economic policy uncertainty; Geopolitical risk; Risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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