IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i4p2077-d748140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis and Double-BiLSTM Model

Author

Listed:
  • Zian Lin

    (School of Computer Science and Information Security, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China
    Guangxi Key Laboratory of Precision Navigation Technology and Application, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

  • Xiyan Sun

    (Guangxi Key Laboratory of Precision Navigation Technology and Application, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China
    Information and Communication School, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China
    GUET-Nanning E-Tech Research Institute Co., Ltd., Nanning 530031, China)

  • Yuanfa Ji

    (Guangxi Key Laboratory of Precision Navigation Technology and Application, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

Abstract

In recent years, machine learning models facilitated notable performance improvement in landslide displacement prediction. However, most existing prediction models which ignore landslide data at each time can provide a different value and meaning. To analyze and predict landslide displacement better, we propose a dynamic landslide displacement prediction model based on time series analysis and a double-bidirectional long short term memory (Double-BiLSTM) model. First, the cumulative landslide displacement is decomposed into trend and periodic displacement components according to time series analysis via the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method. We consider that trend displacement is mainly influenced by landslide factors, and we apply a BiLSTM model to predict landslide trend displacement. This paper analyzes the internal relationship between rainfall, reservoir level and landslide periodic displacement. We adopt the maximum information coefficient (MIC) method to calculate the correlation between influencing factors and periodic displacement. We employ the BiLSTM model for periodic displacement prediction. Finally, the model is validated against data pertaining to the Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges, China. The experimental results and evaluation indicators demonstrate that this method achieves a better prediction performance than the classical prediction methods, and landslide displacement can be effectively predicted.

Suggested Citation

  • Zian Lin & Xiyan Sun & Yuanfa Ji, 2022. "Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis and Double-BiLSTM Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2077-:d:748140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2077/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/4/2077/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peng, Tian & Zhang, Chu & Zhou, Jianzhong & Nazir, Muhammad Shahzad, 2021. "An integrated framework of Bi-directional long-short term memory (BiLSTM) based on sine cosine algorithm for hourly solar radiation forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    2. Xiuzhen Li & Jiming Kong & Zhenyu Wang, 2012. "Landslide displacement prediction based on combining method with optimal weight," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 635-646, March.
    3. Yong-gang Zhang & Jun Tang & Zheng-ying He & Junkun Tan & Chao Li, 2021. "A novel displacement prediction method using gated recurrent unit model with time series analysis in the Erdaohe landslide," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 783-813, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zian Lin & Yuanfa Ji & Xiyan Sun, 2023. "Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on CEEMDAN Method and CNN–BiLSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Zian Lin & Yuanfa Ji & Xiyan Sun, 2023. "Advance Landslide Prediction and Warning Model Based on Stacking Fusion Algorithm," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xinchang Liu & Bolong Liu, 2023. "A Hybrid Time Series Model for Predicting the Displacement of High Slope in the Loess Plateau Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-26, March.
    2. Zian Lin & Yuanfa Ji & Weibin Liang & Xiyan Sun, 2022. "Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time-Frequency Analysis and LMD-BiLSTM Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-19, June.
    3. Weidong Wang & Jiaying Li & Xia Qu & Zheng Han & Pan Liu, 2019. "Prediction on landslide displacement using a new combination model: a case study of Qinglong landslide in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1121-1139, April.
    4. Xiaoyang Yu & Cheng Lian & Yixin Su & Bingrong Xu & Xiaoping Wang & Wei Yao & Huiming Tang, 2022. "Selective ensemble deep bidirectional RVFLN for landslide displacement prediction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 725-745, May.
    5. Wang, Yuhan & Zhang, Chu & Fu, Yongyan & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian & Shahzad Nazir, Muhammad, 2023. "Hybrid solar radiation forecasting model with temporal convolutional network using data decomposition and improved artificial ecosystem-based optimization algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    6. Cheng, Lilin & Zang, Haixiang & Wei, Zhinong & Zhang, Fengchun & Sun, Guoqiang, 2022. "Evaluation of opaque deep-learning solar power forecast models towards power-grid applications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 960-972.
    7. Gairaa, Kacem & Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Benkaciali, Saïd & Guermoui, Mawloud, 2022. "Contribution of ordinal variables to short-term global solar irradiation forecasting for sites with low variabilities," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 890-902.
    8. Na Sun & Nan Zhang & Shuai Zhang & Tian Peng & Wei Jiang & Jie Ji & Xiangmiao Hao, 2022. "An Integrated Framework Based on an Improved Gaussian Process Regression and Decomposition Technique for Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Wei, Nan & Yin, Chuang & Yin, Lihua & Tan, Jingyi & Liu, Jinyuan & Wang, Shouxi & Qiao, Weibiao & Zeng, Fanhua, 2024. "Short-term load forecasting based on WM algorithm and transfer learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PA).
    10. Lin, Yu & Lu, Qin & Tan, Bin & Yu, Yuanyuan, 2022. "Forecasting energy prices using a novel hybrid model with variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    11. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Xiangyue & Wang, Wenpeng & Ma, Lei & Chen, Bolong, 2023. "A multistep short-term solar radiation forecasting model using fully convolutional neural networks and chaotic aquila optimization combining WRF-Solar model results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    12. Zhi Chen & Miaoxin Dai & Jie Liu & Wei Jiang, 2024. "Research on Fault Prediction of Nuclear Safety-Class Signal Conditioning Module Based on Improved GRU," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-16, August.
    13. Zhang, Chu & Li, Zhengbo & Ge, Yida & Liu, Qianlong & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian, 2024. "Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    14. Lu, Peng & Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Dai, Binhua & Pei, Ming & Tang, Yong, 2021. "Review of meta-heuristic algorithms for wind power prediction: Methodologies, applications and challenges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    15. Liulei Bao & Guangcheng Zhang & Xinli Hu & Shuangshuang Wu & Xiangdong Liu, 2021. "Stage Division of Landslide Deformation and Prediction of Critical Sliding Based on Inverse Logistic Function," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-24, February.
    16. Akbal, Yıldırım & Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk, 2022. "A univariate time series methodology based on sequence-to-sequence learning for short to midterm wind power production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 832-844.
    17. Ghimire, Sujan & Deo, Ravinesh C. & Casillas-Pérez, David & Salcedo-Sanz, Sancho, 2022. "Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Deep Residual model for short-term multi-step solar radiation prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 408-424.
    18. Junhao Wu & Zhaocai Wang & Yuan Hu & Sen Tao & Jinghan Dong, 2023. "Runoff Forecasting using Convolutional Neural Networks and optimized Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 937-953, January.
    19. Acikgoz, Hakan, 2022. "A novel approach based on integration of convolutional neural networks and deep feature selection for short-term solar radiation forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    20. Hong Wang & Guangyu Long & Jianxing Liao & Yan Xu & Yan Lv, 2022. "A new hybrid method for establishing point forecasting, interval forecasting, and probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1479-1505, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:4:p:2077-:d:748140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.