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Correlation between COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality Rates in Japan and Local Population Density, Temperature, and Absolute Humidity

Author

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  • Sachiko Kodera

    (Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan)

  • Essam A. Rashed

    (Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Suez Canal University, Ismailia 41522, Egypt)

  • Akimasa Hirata

    (Department of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan
    Center of Biomedical Physics and Information Technology, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan)

Abstract

This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant ( p -value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum absolute humidity ( p -value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Sachiko Kodera & Essam A. Rashed & Akimasa Hirata, 2020. "Correlation between COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality Rates in Japan and Local Population Density, Temperature, and Absolute Humidity," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:15:p:5477-:d:391639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Behrouz Pirouz & Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Behzad Pirouz & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Patrizia Piro, 2020. "Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Sina Shaffiee Haghshenas & Behrouz Pirouz & Sami Shaffiee Haghshenas & Behzad Pirouz & Patrizia Piro & Kyoung-Sae Na & Seo-Eun Cho & Zong Woo Geem, 2020. "Prioritizing and Analyzing the Role of Climate and Urban Parameters in the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 Based on Artificial Intelligence Applications," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Essam A. Rashed & Sachiko Kodera & Jose Gomez-Tames & Akimasa Hirata, 2020. "Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, July.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mateusz Ciski & Krzysztof Rząsa, 2023. "Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression in the Investigation of Local COVID-19 Anomalies Based on Population Age Structure in Poland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-23, May.
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    11. Essam A. Rashed & Sachiko Kodera & Jose Gomez-Tames & Akimasa Hirata, 2020. "Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, July.
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