IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i14p4979-d382934.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning on a National ICD-10 Database

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Olsavszky

    (Department of Dermatology, Venereology and Allergy, University Medical Center and Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, and Center of Excellence in Dermatology, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1–3, 68167 Mannheim, Germany)

  • Mihnea Dosius

    (National School of Public Health Management and Professional Development, Str. Vaselor, nr. 31, 030167 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Cristian Vladescu

    (National School of Public Health Management and Professional Development, Str. Vaselor, nr. 31, 030167 Bucharest, Romania
    University of Medicine and Pharmacy Victor Babes, Piaţa Eftimie Murgu, nr.2, 300041 Timisoara, Romania)

  • Johannes Benecke

    (Department of Dermatology, Venereology and Allergy, University Medical Center and Medical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, and Center of Excellence in Dermatology, Theodor-Kutzer-Ufer 1–3, 68167 Mannheim, Germany)

Abstract

The application of machine learning (ML) for use in generating insights and making predictions on new records continues to expand within the medical community. Despite this progress to date, the application of time series analysis has remained underexplored due to complexity of the underlying techniques. In this study, we have deployed a novel ML, called automated time series (AutoTS) machine learning, to automate data processing and the application of a multitude of models to assess which best forecasts future values. This rapid experimentation allows for and enables the selection of the most accurate model in order to perform time series predictions. By using the nation-wide ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision) dataset of hospitalized patients of Romania, we have generated time series datasets over the period of 2008–2018 and performed highly accurate AutoTS predictions for the ten deadliest diseases. Forecast results for the years 2019 and 2020 were generated on a NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) regional level. This is the first study to our knowledge to perform time series forecasting of multiple diseases at a regional level using automated time series machine learning on a national ICD-10 dataset. The deployment of AutoTS technology can help decision makers in implementing targeted national health policies more efficiently.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Olsavszky & Mihnea Dosius & Cristian Vladescu & Johannes Benecke, 2020. "Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Automated Machine Learning on a National ICD-10 Database," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:14:p:4979-:d:382934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/4979/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/14/4979/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svitlana Volkova & Ellyn Ayton & Katherine Porterfield & Courtney D Corley, 2017. "Forecasting influenza-like illness dynamics for military populations using neural networks and social media," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Andre Esteva & Brett Kuprel & Roberto A. Novoa & Justin Ko & Susan M. Swetter & Helen M. Blau & Sebastian Thrun, 2017. "Correction: Corrigendum: Dermatologist-level classification of skin cancer with deep neural networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 546(7660), pages 686-686, June.
    3. Andrea Freyer Dugas & Mehdi Jalalpour & Yulia Gel & Scott Levin & Fred Torcaso & Takeru Igusa & Richard E Rothman, 2013. "Influenza Forecasting with Google Flu Trends," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
    4. Chris Allen & Ming-Hsiang Tsou & Anoshe Aslam & Anna Nagel & Jean-Mark Gawron, 2016. "Applying GIS and Machine Learning Methods to Twitter Data for Multiscale Surveillance of Influenza," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-10, July.
    5. Yuanbin Song & Fan Wang & Bin Wang & Shaohua Tao & Huiping Zhang & Sai Liu & Oscar Ramirez & Qiyi Zeng, 2015. "Time Series Analyses of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Integrating Weather Variables," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Qinneng Xu & Yulia R Gel & L Leticia Ramirez Ramirez & Kusha Nezafati & Qingpeng Zhang & Kwok-Leung Tsui, 2017. "Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Sangwon Chae & Sungjun Kwon & Donghyun Lee, 2018. "Predicting Infectious Disease Using Deep Learning and Big Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Fan, Victoria Y & Jamison, Dean T & Summers, Lawrence H, 2018. "Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?," Scholarly Articles 35014363, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    9. Andre Esteva & Brett Kuprel & Roberto A. Novoa & Justin Ko & Susan M. Swetter & Helen M. Blau & Sebastian Thrun, 2017. "Dermatologist-level classification of skin cancer with deep neural networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 542(7639), pages 115-118, February.
    10. Declan Butler, 2013. "When Google got flu wrong," Nature, Nature, vol. 494(7436), pages 155-156, February.
    11. Shinya Suzuki & Takeshi Yamashita & Tsuyoshi Sakama & Takuto Arita & Naoharu Yagi & Takayuki Otsuka & Hiroaki Semba & Hiroto Kano & Shunsuke Matsuno & Yuko Kato & Tokuhisa Uejima & Yuji Oikawa & Minor, 2019. "Comparison of risk models for mortality and cardiovascular events between machine learning and conventional logistic regression analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-14, September.
    12. Logan C Brooks & David C Farrow & Sangwon Hyun & Ryan J Tibshirani & Roni Rosenfeld, 2018. "Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-29, June.
    13. Mihaela Simionescu & Svitlana Bilan & Beata Gavurova & Elena-Nicoleta Bordea, 2019. "Health Policies in Romania to Reduce the Mortality Caused by Cardiovascular Diseases," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-9, August.
    14. Ahmed M Alaa & Thomas Bolton & Emanuele Di Angelantonio & James H F Rudd & Mihaela van der Schaar, 2019. "Cardiovascular disease risk prediction using automated machine learning: A prospective study of 423,604 UK Biobank participants," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chien-Lung Chan & Chi-Chang Chang, 2020. "Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-7, September.
    2. Chien-Lung Chan & Chi-Chang Chang, 2022. "Big Data, Decision Models, and Public Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-9, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sangwon Chae & Sungjun Kwon & Donghyun Lee, 2018. "Predicting Infectious Disease Using Deep Learning and Big Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Jungyoon Kim & Jihye Lim, 2021. "A Deep Neural Network-Based Method for Prediction of Dementia Using Big Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Songhee Cheon & Jungyoon Kim & Jihye Lim, 2019. "The Use of Deep Learning to Predict Stroke Patient Mortality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-12, May.
    4. Ibrahim Musa & Hyun Woo Park & Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai & Keun Ho Ryu, 2018. "Global Research on Syndromic Surveillance from 1993 to 2017: Bibliometric Analysis and Visualization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Daniel Alejandro Gónzalez-Bandala & Juan Carlos Cuevas-Tello & Daniel E. Noyola & Andreu Comas-García & Christian A García-Sepúlveda, 2020. "Computational Forecasting Methodology for Acute Respiratory Infectious Disease Dynamics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Kookjin Lee & Jaideep Ray & Cosmin Safta, 2021. "The predictive skill of convolutional neural networks models for disease forecasting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-26, July.
    7. Lin Lu & Laurent Dercle & Binsheng Zhao & Lawrence H. Schwartz, 2021. "Deep learning for the prediction of early on-treatment response in metastatic colorectal cancer from serial medical imaging," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Zheng Yan & Wenqian Robertson & Yaosheng Lou & Tom W. Robertson & Sung Yong Park, 2021. "Finding leading scholars in mobile phone behavior: a mixed-method analysis of an emerging interdisciplinary field," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(12), pages 9499-9517, December.
    9. Freddy Gabbay & Rotem Lev Aharoni & Ori Schweitzer, 2022. "Deep Neural Network Memory Performance and Throughput Modeling and Simulation Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-20, November.
    10. Gang Yu & Kai Sun & Chao Xu & Xing-Hua Shi & Chong Wu & Ting Xie & Run-Qi Meng & Xiang-He Meng & Kuan-Song Wang & Hong-Mei Xiao & Hong-Wen Deng, 2021. "Accurate recognition of colorectal cancer with semi-supervised deep learning on pathological images," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. DonHee Lee & Seong No Yoon, 2021. "Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Technologies in the Healthcare Industry: Opportunities and Challenges," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    12. Claus Zippel & Sabine Bohnet-Joschko, 2021. "Rise of Clinical Studies in the Field of Machine Learning: A Review of Data Registered in ClinicalTrials.gov," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-14, May.
    13. Dario Sipari & Betsy D. M. Chaparro-Rico & Daniele Cafolla, 2022. "SANE (Easy Gait Analysis System): Towards an AI-Assisted Automatic Gait-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-27, August.
    14. Srinka Basu & Sugata Sen, 2023. "COVID 19 Pandemic, Socio-Economic Behaviour and Infection Characteristics: An Inter-Country Predictive Study Using Deep Learning," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(2), pages 645-676, February.
    15. Jamil Ahmad & Abdul Khader Jilani Saudagar & Khalid Mahmood Malik & Waseem Ahmad & Muhammad Badruddin Khan & Mozaherul Hoque Abul Hasanat & Abdullah AlTameem & Mohammed AlKhathami & Muhammad Sajjad, 2022. "Disease Progression Detection via Deep Sequence Learning of Successive Radiographic Scans," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Corrado Lanera & Ileana Baldi & Andrea Francavilla & Elisa Barbieri & Lara Tramontan & Antonio Scamarcia & Luigi Cantarutti & Carlo Giaquinto & Dario Gregori, 2022. "A Deep Learning Approach to Estimate the Incidence of Infectious Disease Cases for Routinely Collected Ambulatory Records: The Example of Varicella-Zoster," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-13, May.
    17. Rasheed Omobolaji Alabi & Alhadi Almangush & Mohammed Elmusrati & Ilmo Leivo & Antti Mäkitie, 2022. "Measuring the Usability and Quality of Explanations of a Machine Learning Web-Based Tool for Oral Tongue Cancer Prognostication," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-13, July.
    18. Andreas Fügener & Jörn Grahl & Alok Gupta & Wolfgang Ketter, 2022. "Cognitive Challenges in Human–Artificial Intelligence Collaboration: Investigating the Path Toward Productive Delegation," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(2), pages 678-696, June.
    19. Zeynep Ertem & Dorrie Raymond & Lauren Ancel Meyers, 2018. "Optimal multi-source forecasting of seasonal influenza," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    20. Vidhya V. & Anjan Gudigar & U. Raghavendra & Ajay Hegde & Girish R. Menon & Filippo Molinari & Edward J. Ciaccio & U. Rajendra Acharya, 2021. "Automated Detection and Screening of Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) Using Computed Tomography Images: A Comprehensive Review and Future Perspectives," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-29, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:14:p:4979-:d:382934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.