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Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

Author

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  • Bipin Kumar Acharya

    (State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Chunxiang Cao

    (State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

  • Min Xu

    (State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China)

  • Laxman Khanal

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650223, China
    Central Department of Zoology, Institute of Science and Technology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu 44613, Nepal)

  • Shahid Naeem

    (State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Shreejana Pandit

    (Kanti Children’s Hospital Maharajgunj, Kathmandu 44616, Nepal)

Abstract

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.

Suggested Citation

  • Bipin Kumar Acharya & Chunxiang Cao & Min Xu & Laxman Khanal & Shahid Naeem & Shreejana Pandit, 2018. "Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:2:p:187-:d:128347
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Boyang Liu & Xiang Gao & Jun Ma & Zhihui Jiao & Jianhua Xiao & Hongbin Wang, 2018. "Influence of Host and Environmental Factors on the Distribution of the Japanese Encephalitis Vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Bipin Kumar Acharya & Wei Chen & Zengliang Ruan & Gobind Prasad Pant & Yin Yang & Lalan Prasad Shah & Chunxiang Cao & Zhiwei Xu & Meghnath Dhimal & Hualiang Lin, 2019. "Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Sheika Henry & Francisco de Assis Mendonça, 2020. "Past, Present, and Future Vulnerability to Dengue in Jamaica: A Spatial Analysis of Monthly Variations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-14, May.
    5. Alice McGushin & Yassen Tcholakov & Shakoor Hajat, 2018. "Climate Change and Human Health: Health Impacts of Warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-4, May.
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