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Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

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  • Fredrick Tom Otieno

    (Animal Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709 Nairobi 00100, Kenya
    School of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 17, Kitui 90200, Kenya)

  • John Gachohi

    (Paul Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University-Global Health Kenya, One Padmore Place, George Padmore Lane, P.O. Box 19676 Nairobi 00100, Kenya
    School of Public Health, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, P.O. Box 62000, Nairobi 00200, Kenya)

  • Peter Gikuma-Njuru

    (School of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 17, Kitui 90200, Kenya)

  • Patrick Kariuki

    (School of Environment, Water and Natural Resources, South Eastern Kenya University, P.O. Box 17, Kitui 90200, Kenya)

  • Harry Oyas

    (Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics Unit, Kenya Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, P.O. Box 30028 Nairobi 00100, Kenya)

  • Samuel A. Canfield

    (Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

  • Bernard Bett

    (Animal Health Program, International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709 Nairobi 00100, Kenya)

  • Moses Kariuki Njenga

    (Paul Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University-Global Health Kenya, One Padmore Place, George Padmore Lane, P.O. Box 19676 Nairobi 00100, Kenya)

  • Jason K. Blackburn

    (Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
    Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA)

Abstract

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km 2 , RCP 4.5, 40,012 km 2 , and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km 2 . The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fredrick Tom Otieno & John Gachohi & Peter Gikuma-Njuru & Patrick Kariuki & Harry Oyas & Samuel A. Canfield & Bernard Bett & Moses Kariuki Njenga & Jason K. Blackburn, 2021. "Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(8), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:8:p:4176-:d:536539
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bipin Kumar Acharya & Chunxiang Cao & Min Xu & Laxman Khanal & Shahid Naeem & Shreejana Pandit, 2018. "Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazeem Babatunde Akande & Samuel Tosin Akinyemi & Nneka O. Iheonu & Alogla Monday Audu & Folashade Mistura Jimoh & Atede Anne Ojoma & Victoria Iyabode Okeowo & Abdulrahaman Lawal Suleiman & Kayode Osh, 2024. "A Risk-Structured Model for the Transmission Dynamics of Anthrax Disease," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.

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