IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_8997.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cities and the Sea Level

Author

Listed:
  • Yatang Lin
  • Thomas K.J. McDermott
  • Guy Michaels

Abstract

Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out, especially when sea levels are rising. We study this construction using spatially disaggregated data on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We document nine stylized facts, including a sizeable rise in the share of coastal housing built on flood-prone land from 1990-2010, which concentrated particularly in densely populated areas. To explain our findings, we develop a model of a monocentric coastal city, which we then use to explore the consequences of sea level rise and government policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yatang Lin & Thomas K.J. McDermott & Guy Michaels, 2021. "Cities and the Sea Level," CESifo Working Paper Series 8997, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8997
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8997.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J Vernon Henderson & Tanner Regan & Anthony J Venables, 2021. "Building the City: From Slums to a Modern Metropolis [New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution of Land for Capital]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(3), pages 1157-1192.
    2. Klaus Desmet & Robert E. Kopp & Scott A. Kulp & Dávid Krisztián Nagy & Michael Oppenheimer & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 444-486, April.
    3. Dave Donaldson & Richard Hornbeck, 2016. "Railroads and American Economic Growth: A "Market Access" Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 799-858.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "Expected Costs of Damage From Hurricane Winds and Storm-Related Flooding," Reports 55019, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    6. Tatyana Deryugina, 2017. "The Fiscal Cost of Hurricanes: Disaster Aid versus Social Insurance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 168-198, August.
    7. Rappaport, Jordan, 2007. "Moving to nice weather," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 375-398, May.
    8. Miyuki Hino & Marshall Burke, 2020. "Does Information About Climate Risk Affect Property Values?," NBER Working Papers 26807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mariaflavia Harari, 2020. "Cities in Bad Shape: Urban Geometry in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2377-2421, August.
    10. Rappaport, Jordan & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2003. "The United States as a Coastal Nation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    11. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2012. "Portage and Path Dependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 587-644.
    12. Charles A. Taylor & Hannah Druckenmiller, 2022. "Wetlands, Flooding, and the Clean Water Act," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1334-1363, April.
    13. Warren Kriesel & Craig Landry, 2004. "Participation in the National Flood Insurance Program: An Empirical Analysis for Coastal Properties," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 405-420, September.
    14. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2023. "Urban Growth and Its Aggregate Implications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2219-2259, November.
    15. Carolyn Kousky & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2017. "Examining Flood Insurance Claims in the United States: Six Key Findings," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(3), pages 819-850, September.
    16. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins, 2020. "Climate Risk and Beliefs in New York Floodplains," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(6), pages 1069-1111.
    17. Gyourko, Joseph & Hartley, Jonathan S. & Krimmel, Jacob, 2021. "The local residential land use regulatory environment across U.S. housing markets: Evidence from a new Wharton index," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    20. Richard Hornbeck & Daniel Keniston, 2017. "Creative Destruction: Barriers to Urban Growth and the Great Boston Fire of 1872," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1365-1398, June.
    21. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    22. Barrage, Lint & Furst, Jacob, 2019. "Housing investment, sea level rise, and climate change beliefs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 105-108.
    23. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan, 2010. "Catastrophe Economics: The National Flood Insurance Program," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 165-186, Fall.
    24. Sarah Pralle, 2019. "Drawing lines: FEMA and the politics of mapping flood zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 227-237, January.
    25. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert J R, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalised Into Property Values?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 668-685.
    26. Bester, C. Alan & Conley, Timothy G. & Hansen, Christian B., 2011. "Inference with dependent data using cluster covariance estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 137-151.
    27. Ortega, Francesc & Taṣpınar, Süleyman, 2018. "Rising sea levels and sinking property values: Hurricane Sandy and New York’s housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 81-100.
    28. Dinan, Terry, 2017. "Projected Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: The Role of Climate Change and Coastal Development," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 186-198.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Remi Jedwab & Federico Haslop & Roman Zarate & Carlos Rodriguez-Castelan, 2023. "The Effects of Climate Change in the Poorest Countries: Evidence from the Permanent Shrinking of Lake Chad," Working Papers 2023-06, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    2. Jacopo Ponticelli & Qiping Xu & Stefan Zeume, 2023. "Temperature and Local Industry Concentration," Working Papers 23-51, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Mulder, Philip, 2021. "What's at Stake? Understanding the Role of Home Equity in Flood Insurance Demand," RFF Working Paper Series 21-25, Resources for the Future.
    3. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    4. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Liao, Yanjun & Panassié, Yann, 2023. "How hurricanes sweep up housing markets: Evidence from Florida," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Michaels, Guy & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Resetting the Urban Network: 117-2012," CEPR Discussion Papers 9760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Edward L. Glaeser & Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 498-520, May.
    8. Ye, Victor Yifan & Becker, Charles M., 2018. "The Z-axis: Elevation gradient effects in Urban America," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 312-329.
    9. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    10. Guy Michaels & Dzhamilya Nigmatulina & Ferdinand Rauch & Tanner Regan & Neeraj Baruah & Amanda Dahlstrand, 2021. "Planning Ahead for Better Neighborhoods: Long-Run Evidence from Tanzania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2112-2156.
    11. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2019. "Transport infrastructure, growth and persistence: The rise and demise of the Sui Canal," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 624-666, May.
    13. Cuberes, David & Desmet, Klaus & Rappaport, Jordan, 2021. "Urban growth shadows," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    14. Joakim Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Working Papers 2023.10, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    15. Joakim A. Weill, 2023. "Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-066, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Martin Fiszbein, 2017. "Agricultural Diversity, Structural Change and Long-run Development: Evidence from the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Marcel Henkel, Eunjee Kwon, Pierre Magontier, 2022. "The Unintended Consequences of Post-Disaster Policies for Spatial Sorting," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper37, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    18. Luke Heath Milsom, 2023. "Moving OpportunityLocal Connectivity and Spatial Inequality," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2303, CEPREMAP.
    19. Justin Tyndall, 2023. "Sea Level Rise and Home Prices: Evidence from Long Island," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 579-605, November.
    20. Barsanetti, Bruno, 2021. "Cities on pre-Columbian paths," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    21. Tom Gillespie & Ronan C. Lyons & Thomas K. J. McDermott, 2020. "Information Matters: Evidence from flood risk in the Irish housing market," Trinity Economics Papers tep1620, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cities; climate change; sea level rise;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.