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Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

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  • Wen-Yeau Chang

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, St. John's University, 499, Sec. 4, Tam King Road, Tamsui District, New Taipei City 25135, Taiwan)

Abstract

High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF) neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS) installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Yeau Chang, 2013. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:9:p:4879-4896:d:28947
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dinh Thanh Viet & Vo Van Phuong & Minh Quan Duong & Quoc Tuan Tran, 2020. "Models for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Improved Artificial Neural Network Using Particle Swarm Optimization and Genetic Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Wei Sun & Mohan Liu & Yi Liang, 2015. "Wind Speed Forecasting Based on FEEMD and LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Akhtar Hussain & Van-Hai Bui & Hak-Man Kim, 2016. "Robust Optimization-Based Scheduling of Multi-Microgrids Considering Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Hufang Yang & Zaiping Jiang & Haiyan Lu, 2017. "A Hybrid Wind Speed Forecasting System Based on a ‘Decomposition and Ensemble’ Strategy and Fuzzy Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-30, September.
    5. Liu, Jinqiang & Wang, Xiaoru & Lu, Yun, 2017. "A novel hybrid methodology for short-term wind power forecasting based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 620-629.
    6. Wang, Yong & Chi, Pei & Nie, Rui & Ma, Xin & Wu, Wenqing & Guo, Binghong, 2022. "Self-adaptive discrete grey model based on a novel fractional order reverse accumulation sequence and its application in forecasting clean energy power generation in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    7. Mathieu Pichault & Claire Vincent & Grant Skidmore & Jason Monty, 2021. "Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting at the Wind Farm Scale Using Long-Range Doppler LiDAR," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, May.
    8. Nima Amjady & Oveis Abedinia, 2017. "Short Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved Kriging Interpolation, Empirical Mode Decomposition, and Closed-Loop Forecasting Engine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Bayón, L. & Grau, J.M. & Ruiz, M.M. & Suárez, P.M., 2016. "A comparative economic study of two configurations of hydro-wind power plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 8-16.
    10. Ioannis K. Bazionis & Markos A. Kousounadis-Knudsen & Theodoros Konstantinou & Pavlos S. Georgilakis, 2021. "A WT-LUBE-PSO-CWC Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting Model for Prediction Interval Construction and Seasonality Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-23, September.
    11. Peláez-Rodríguez, C. & Pérez-Aracil, J. & Fister, D. & Prieto-Godino, L. & Deo, R.C. & Salcedo-Sanz, S., 2022. "A hierarchical classification/regression algorithm for improving extreme wind speed events prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P2), pages 157-178.
    12. Peng Lu & Lin Ye & Bohao Sun & Cihang Zhang & Yongning Zhao & Jingzhu Teng, 2018. "A New Hybrid Prediction Method of Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM Optimized by the GSA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Maria Grazia De Giorgi & Stefano Campilongo & Antonio Ficarella & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2014. "Comparison Between Wind Power Prediction Models Based on Wavelet Decomposition with Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Neeraj Bokde & Andrés Feijóo & Daniel Villanueva & Kishore Kulat, 2018. "A Novel and Alternative Approach for Direct and Indirect Wind-Power Prediction Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.

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