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Application of echo state networks in short-term electric load forecasting

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  • Deihimi, Ali
  • Showkati, Hemen

Abstract

The paper presents the application of echo state network (ESN) to short-term load forecasting (STLF) problem in power systems for both 1-h and 24-h ahead predictions while using the least number of inputs: current-hour load, predicted target-hour temperature, and only for 24-h ahead forecasting, day-type index. The study is much attractive due to inclusion of weekends/holidays what makes STLF problem much more difficult. The main aim is to show the great capabilities of ESN as a stand-alone forecaster to learn complex dynamics of hourly electric load time series and forecast the near future loads with high accuracies. ESN as the state-of-the-art recurrent neural network (RNN) gains a reservoir of dynamics tapped by trained output units with a simple and fast single-stage training process. Furthermore, the application of ESN to predict the target-hour temperature needed by ESN-based load forecasters is examined. Since temperature prediction errors affect load forecasting accuracy, effects of such errors on ESN-based load forecasting are studied by both sensitivity analysis and applying noisy temperature series. Real hourly load and temperature data of a North-American electric utility is used as the data set. The results reflect that the ESN-based STLF method provides load forecasts with acceptable high accuracy.

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  • Deihimi, Ali & Showkati, Hemen, 2012. "Application of echo state networks in short-term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 327-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:327-340
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.007
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    Cited by:

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    6. Wenhao Chen & Guangjie Han & Hongbo Zhu & Lyuchao Liao & Wenqing Zhao, 2022. "Deep ResNet-Based Ensemble Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Protection System of Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
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    10. Wen, Shizhao & Wang, Hongzeng & Qian, Jinhua & Men, Xuanyu, 2023. "A novel combined model based on echo state network optimized by whale optimization algorithm for blast furnace gas prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    11. Dadkhah, Mojtaba & Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Zare Chavoshi, Ahmad, 2018. "Short-term power output forecasting of hourly operation in power plant based on climate factors and effects of wind direction and wind speed," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 775-788.
    12. Deihimi, Ali & Orang, Omid & Showkati, Hemen, 2013. "Short-term electric load and temperature forecasting using wavelet echo state networks with neural reconstruction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 382-401.
    13. Zeng, Chunlei & Wu, Changchun & Zuo, Lili & Zhang, Bin & Hu, Xingqiao, 2014. "Predicting energy consumption of multiproduct pipeline using artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 791-798.
    14. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    15. Zahedi, Gholamreza & Azizi, Saeed & Bahadori, Alireza & Elkamel, Ali & Wan Alwi, Sharifah R., 2013. "Electricity demand estimation using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy network: A case study from the Ontario province – Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 323-328.
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    18. Jianzhou Wang & Chunying Wu & Tong Niu, 2019. "A Novel System for Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Multi-Objective Optimization and Echo State Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.

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