IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i24p6401-d1547742.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Electricity Production in a Small Hydropower Plant (SHP) Using Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Author

Listed:
  • Dawid Maciejewski

    (Department of Bioprocess Engineering, Power Engineering and Automation, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Krakow, Poland)

  • Krzysztof Mudryk

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering and Agrophysics, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Krakow, Poland)

  • Maciej Sporysz

    (Department of Production Engineering, Logistics and Applied Computer Science, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 31-120 Krakow, Poland)

Abstract

This article devises the Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods of designing models of short-term forecasting (in 12 h and 24 h horizons) of electricity production in a selected Small Hydropower Plant (SHP). Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) are difficult to predict due to weather variability. Electricity production by a run-of-river SHP is marked by the variability related to the access to instantaneous flow in the river and weather conditions. In order to develop predictive models of an SHP facility (installed capacity 760 kW), which is located in Southern Poland on the Skawa River, hourly data from nearby meteorological stations and a water gauge station were collected as explanatory variables. Data on the water management of the retention reservoir above the SHP were also included. The variable to be explained was the hourly electricity production, which was obtained from the tested SHP over a period of 3 years and 10 months. Obtaining these data to build models required contact with state institutions and private entrepreneurs of the SHP. Four AI methods were chosen to create predictive models: two types of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Base Functions (RBFs), and two types of decision trees methods, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). Finally, after applying forecast quality measures of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ), the most effective model was indicated. The decision trees method proved to be more accurate than ANN models. The best GBDT models’ errors were MAPE 3.17% and MAE 9.97 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE 3.41% and MAE 10.96 kWh (for 24 h horizon). MLPs had worse results: MAPE from 5.41% to 5.55% and MAE from 18.02 kWh to 18.40 kWh (for 12 h horizon), and MAPE from 7.30% to 7.50% and MAE from 24.12 kWh to 24.83 kWh (for 24 h horizon). Forecasts using RBF were not made due to the very low quality of training and testing (the correlation coefficient was approximately 0.3).

Suggested Citation

  • Dawid Maciejewski & Krzysztof Mudryk & Maciej Sporysz, 2024. "Forecasting Electricity Production in a Small Hydropower Plant (SHP) Using Artificial Intelligence (AI)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:24:p:6401-:d:1547742
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/24/6401/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/24/6401/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kursa, Miron B. & Rudnicki, Witold R., 2010. "Feature Selection with the Boruta Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 36(i11).
    2. Valentina Sessa & Edi Assoumou & Mireille Bossy & Sofia G. Simões, 2021. "Analyzing the Applicability of Random Forest-Based Models for the Forecast of Run-of-River Hydropower Generation," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Gérard Biau & Erwan Scornet, 2016. "A random forest guided tour," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 197-227, June.
    4. Forbes, Kevin F. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 2020. "Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Mohammad Abdul Baseer & Anas Almunif & Ibrahim Alsaduni & Nazia Tazeen, 2023. "Electrical Power Generation Forecasting from Renewable Energy Systems Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    6. Gérard Biau & Erwan Scornet, 2016. "Rejoinder on: A random forest guided tour," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 264-268, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel J. García Rodríguez & Vicente Rodríguez Montequín & Francisco Ortega Fernández & Joaquín M. Villanueva Balsera, 2019. "Public Procurement Announcements in Spain: Regulations, Data Analysis, and Award Price Estimator Using Machine Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-20, November.
    2. Matara Caroline Mongina & Nyambane Simpson Osano & Yusuf Amir Okeyo & Ochungo Elisha Akech & Khattak Afaq, 2024. "Classification of Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Concentrations Using Feature Selection and Machine Learning Strategies," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 85-96.
    3. Dai, Hongyan & Xiao, Qin & Chen, Songlin & Zhou, Weihua, 2023. "Data-driven demand forecast for O2O operations: An adaptive hierarchical incremental approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Hou, Lei & Elsworth, Derek & Zhang, Fengshou & Wang, Zhiyuan & Zhang, Jianbo, 2023. "Evaluation of proppant injection based on a data-driven approach integrating numerical and ensemble learning models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    5. Ma, Zhikai & Huo, Qian & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Tao, 2023. "Voltage-temperature aware thermal runaway alarming framework for electric vehicles via deep learning with attention mechanism in time-frequency domain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    6. Patrick Krennmair & Timo Schmid, 2022. "Flexible domain prediction using mixed effects random forests," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1865-1894, November.
    7. Sachin Kumar & Zairu Nisha & Jagvinder Singh & Anuj Kumar Sharma, 2022. "Sensor network driven novel hybrid model based on feature selection and SVR to predict indoor temperature for energy consumption optimisation in smart buildings," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(6), pages 3048-3061, December.
    8. Escribano, Álvaro & Wang, Dandan, 2021. "Mixed random forest, cointegration, and forecasting gasoline prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1442-1462.
    9. Yigit Aydede & Jan Ditzen, 2022. "Identifying the regional drivers of influenza-like illness in Nova Scotia with dominance analysis," Papers 2212.06684, arXiv.org.
    10. Siyoon Kwon & Hyoseob Noh & Il Won Seo & Sung Hyun Jung & Donghae Baek, 2021. "Identification Framework of Contaminant Spill in Rivers Using Machine Learning with Breakthrough Curve Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-26, January.
    11. Yan, Ran & Wang, Shuaian & Du, Yuquan, 2020. "Development of a two-stage ship fuel consumption prediction and reduction model for a dry bulk ship," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Yi Cao & Xue Li, 2022. "Multi-Model Attention Fusion Multilayer Perceptron Prediction Method for Subway OD Passenger Flow under COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Filmer,Deon P. & Nahata,Vatsal & Sabarwal,Shwetlena, 2021. "Preparation, Practice, and Beliefs : A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding Teacher Effectiveness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9847, The World Bank.
    14. Daniel Boller & Michael Lechner & Gabriel Okasa, 2021. "The Effect of Sport in Online Dating: Evidence from Causal Machine Learning," Papers 2104.04601, arXiv.org.
    15. Zhenchao Zhang & Weixin Luan & Chuang Tian & Min Su, 2025. "Impact of Urban Expansion on School Quality in Compulsory Education: A Spatio-Temporal Study of Dalian, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Jorge Antunes & Peter Wanke & Thiago Fonseca & Yong Tan, 2023. "Do ESG Risk Scores Influence Financial Distress? Evidence from a Dynamic NDEA Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-32, May.
    17. Lyudmyla Kirichenko & Tamara Radivilova & Vitalii Bulakh, 2018. "Machine Learning in Classification Time Series with Fractal Properties," Data, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Cini, Federico & Ferrari, Annalisa, 2025. "Towards the estimation of ESG ratings: A machine learning approach using balance sheet ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB).
    19. Ivan Brandić & Lato Pezo & Nikola Bilandžija & Anamarija Peter & Jona Šurić & Neven Voća, 2023. "Comparison of Different Machine Learning Models for Modelling the Higher Heating Value of Biomass," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, April.
    20. Jianghong Xu & Wei Lu & Weixin Wang, 2024. "From “fragile smallholders” to “resilient smallholders”: measuring rural household resilience in China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:24:p:6401-:d:1547742. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.