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Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

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  • Forbes, Kevin F.
  • Zampelli, Ernest M.

Abstract

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Forbes, Kevin F. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 2020. "Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s0957178720301053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2020.101111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Konrad Świrski & Piotr Błach, 2024. "Energy Storage Management Using Artificial Intelligence to Maximize Polish Energy Market Profits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Jastrzebska, Agnieszka & Morales Hernández, Alejandro & Nápoles, Gonzalo & Salgueiro, Yamisleydi & Vanhoof, Koen, 2022. "Measuring wind turbine health using fuzzy-concept-based drifting models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 730-740.
    4. Forbes, Kevin F., 2023. "Demand for grid-supplied electricity in the presence of distributed solar energy resources: Evidence from New York City," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Dawid Maciejewski & Krzysztof Mudryk & Maciej Sporysz, 2024. "Forecasting Electricity Production in a Small Hydropower Plant (SHP) Using Artificial Intelligence (AI)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(24), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas & Kathari, Gabriel & Porté-Agel, Fernando, 2024. "A hybrid physics-based and data-driven model for intra-day and day-ahead wind power forecasting considering a drastically expanded predictor search space," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    7. Philippe de Bekker & Sho Cremers & Sonam Norbu & David Flynn & Valentin Robu, 2023. "Improving the Efficiency of Renewable Energy Assets by Optimizing the Matching of Supply and Demand Using a Smart Battery Scheduling Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wind energy forecasting; Forecast accuracy;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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