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Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy

Author

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  • Nicoletta Matera

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

  • Domenico Mazzeo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy
    Department of Mechanical, Energy and Management Engineering (DIMEG), University of Calabria, P. Bucci Cube 46/C, 87036 Arcavacata of Rende, Italy)

  • Cristina Baglivo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

  • Paolo Maria Congedo

    (Department of Engineering for Innovation, University of Salento, Via per Arnesano, 73100 Lecce, Italy)

Abstract

This work aims to assess the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) electricity in two Italian cities, with different latitudes and Köppen–Geiger climate classifications. This was undertaken using the recent EURO-CORDEX set of high-resolution climate projections and PV power generation models, implemented on TRNSYS software. Data for two variables (surface air temperature and solar radiation) were analysed over a long period from 1971 to 2100. For future periods, two of the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report were considered. In both RCP scenarios and both locations, it is estimated that the yearly PV energy produced in the future period will not undergo significant variations on average given that the rate of decrease is foreseen almost constant; instead, a slight reduction in the PV energy was detected in the past period. It can be concluded that the PV market in Italy will grow in the next years considering that the reduction in the foreseen PV purchase costs will be also supported by the slight positive effect of climate change on PV manufacturability.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletta Matera & Domenico Mazzeo & Cristina Baglivo & Paolo Maria Congedo, 2022. "Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:24:p:9546-:d:1005310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ayikoe Tettey, Uniben Yao & Gustavsson, Leif, 2020. "Energy savings and overheating risk of deep energy renovation of a multi-storey residential building in a cold climate under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    2. Mazzeo, Domenico, 2019. "Nocturnal electric vehicle charging interacting with a residential photovoltaic-battery system: a 3E (energy, economic and environmental) analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 310-331.
    3. Mazzeo, Domenico & Matera, Nicoletta & De Luca, Pierangelo & Baglivo, Cristina & Maria Congedo, Paolo & Oliveti, Giuseppe, 2020. "Worldwide geographical mapping and optimization of stand-alone and grid-connected hybrid renewable system techno-economic performance across Köppen-Geiger climates," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
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