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A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Yixiang Ma

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Lean Yu

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
    WQ-UCAS Graduate School of Business, Binzhou Institute of Technology, Binzhou 256600, China
    WQ-UCAS Joint Lab, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China)

  • Guoxing Zhang

    (School of Management, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

Abstract

To improve the prediction accuracy of short-term load series, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on a multi-trait-driven methodology and secondary decomposition. In detail, four steps were performed sequentially, i.e., data decomposition, secondary decomposition, individual prediction, and ensemble output, all of which were designed based on a multi-trait-driven methodology. In particular, the multi-period identification method and the judgment basis of secondary decomposition were designed to assist the construction of the hybrid model. In the numerical experiment, the short-term load data with 15 min intervals was collected as the research object. By analyzing the results of multi-step-ahead forecasting and the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test, the proposed hybrid model was proven to outperform all benchmark models, which can be regarded as an effective solution for short-term load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Yixiang Ma & Lean Yu & Guoxing Zhang, 2022. "A Hybrid Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on a Multi-Trait-Driven Methodology and Secondary Decomposition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:16:p:5875-:d:887392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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