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A Deep Learning Approach for Peak Load Forecasting: A Case Study on Panama

Author

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  • Bibi Ibrahim

    (Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA)

  • Luis Rabelo

    (Industrial Engineering & Management Systems Department, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA)

Abstract

Predicting the future peak demand growth becomes increasingly important as more consumer loads and electric vehicles (EVs) start connecting to the grid. Accurate forecasts will enable energy suppliers to meet demand more reliably. However, this is a challenging problem since the peak demand is very nonlinear. This study addresses the research question of how deep learning methods, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and long-short term memory (LSTM) can provide better support to these areas. The goal is to build a suitable forecasting model that can accurately predict the peak demand. Several data from 2004 to 2019 was collected from Panama’s power system to validate this study. Input features such as residential consumption and monthly economic index were considered for predicting peak demand. First, we introduced three different CNN architectures which were multivariate CNN, multivariate CNN-LSTM and multihead CNN. These were then benchmarked against LSTM. We found that the CNNs outperformed LSTM, with the multivariate CNN being the best performing model. To validate our initial findings, we then evaluated the robustness of the models against Gaussian noise. We demonstrated that CNNs were far more superior than LSTM and can support spatial-temporal time series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo, 2021. "A Deep Learning Approach for Peak Load Forecasting: A Case Study on Panama," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:11:p:3039-:d:561210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ihab Taleb & Guillaume Guerard & Frédéric Fauberteau & Nga Nguyen, 2022. "A Flexible Deep Learning Method for Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo & Alfonso T. Sarmiento & Edgar Gutierrez-Franco, 2023. "A Holistic Approach to Power Systems Using Innovative Machine Learning and System Dynamics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-29, July.
    4. Patricia Franco & José M. Martínez & Young-Chon Kim & Mohamed A. Ahmed, 2022. "A Cyber-Physical Approach for Residential Energy Management: Current State and Future Directions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-33, April.
    5. Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy & Margarita Sergeevna Kovalchuk & Daria Evgenievna Batueva & Nikita Dmitrievich Senchilo, 2021. "Development of an Algorithm for Regulating the Load Schedule of Educational Institutions Based on the Forecast of Electric Consumption within the Framework of Application of the Demand Response," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Bingjie Jin & Guihua Zeng & Zhilin Lu & Hongqiao Peng & Shuxin Luo & Xinhe Yang & Haojun Zhu & Mingbo Liu, 2022. "Hybrid LSTM–BPNN-to-BPNN Model Considering Multi-Source Information for Forecasting Medium- and Long-Term Electricity Peak Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Tan Ngoc Dinh & Gokul Sidarth Thirunavukkarasu & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Saad Mekhilef & Alex Stojcevski, 2023. "Energy Consumption Forecasting in Commercial Buildings during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multivariate Multilayered Long-Short Term Memory Time-Series Model with Knowledge Injection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
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