IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v11y2023i14p3247-d1201138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Hybrid Medium and Long-Term Relative Humidity Point and Interval Prediction Method for Intensive Poultry Farming

Author

Listed:
  • Hang Yin

    (College of Big Data and Internet, Shenzhen Technology University, Shenzhen 518118, China
    College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Zeyu Wu

    (College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Junchao Wu

    (Institute of Collaborative Innovation, University of Macau, Macao 999078, China)

  • Junjie Jiang

    (College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Yalin Chen

    (College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Mingxuan Chen

    (College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Shixuan Luo

    (College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou 510225, China)

  • Lijun Gao

    (College of Computer Science, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang 110136, China)

Abstract

The accurate and reliable relative humidity (RH) prediction holds immense significance in effectively controlling the breeding cycle health and optimizing egg production performance in intensive poultry farming environments. However, current RH prediction research mainly focuses on short-term point predictions, which cannot meet the demand for accurate RH control in poultry houses in intensive farming. To compensate for this deficiency, a hybrid medium and long-term RH prediction model capable of precise point and interval prediction is proposed in this study. Firstly, the complexity of RH is reduced using a data denoising method that combines complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and permutation entropy. Secondly, important environmental factors are selected from feature correlation and change trends. Thirdly, based on the results of data denoising and feature selection, a BiGRU-Attention model incorporating an attention mechanism is established for medium and long-term RH point prediction. Finally, the Gaussian kernel density estimation (KDE-Gaussian) method is used to fit the point prediction error, and the RH prediction interval at different confidence levels is estimated. This method was applied to analyze the actual collection of waterfowl (Magang geese) environmental datasets from October 2022 to March 2023. The results indicate that the CEEMDAN-FS-BiGRU-Attention model proposed in this study has excellent medium and long-term point prediction performance. In comparison to LSTM, the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are reduced by 57.7%, 48.2%, and 56.6%, respectively. Furthermore, at different confidence levels, the prediction interval formed by the KDE-Gaussian method is reliable and stable, which meets the need for accurate RH control in intensive farming environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Hang Yin & Zeyu Wu & Junchao Wu & Junjie Jiang & Yalin Chen & Mingxuan Chen & Shixuan Luo & Lijun Gao, 2023. "A Hybrid Medium and Long-Term Relative Humidity Point and Interval Prediction Method for Intensive Poultry Farming," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:14:p:3247-:d:1201138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/14/3247/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/14/3247/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sang-yeon Lee & In-bok Lee & Uk-hyeon Yeo & Jun-gyu Kim & Rack-woo Kim, 2022. "Machine Learning Approach to Predict Air Temperature and Relative Humidity inside Mechanically and Naturally Ventilated Duck Houses: Application of Recurrent Neural Network," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Shuyu Dai & Dongxiao Niu & Yan Li, 2018. "Daily Peak Load Forecasting Based on Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise and Support Vector Machine Optimized by Modified Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Jiande Huang & Shuangyin Liu & Shahbaz Gul Hassan & Longqin Xu, 2021. "Pollution index of waterfowl farm assessment and prediction based on temporal convoluted network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Zhou, Feite & Huang, Zhehao & Zhang, Changhong, 2022. "Carbon price forecasting based on CEEMDAN and LSTM," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    5. Niu, Dongxiao & Sun, Lijie & Yu, Min & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Point and interval forecasting of ultra-short-term wind power based on a data-driven method and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    6. Li, Y. & Arulnathan, V. & Heidari, M.D. & Pelletier, N., 2022. "Design considerations for net zero energy buildings for intensive, confined poultry production: A review of current insights, knowledge gaps, and future directions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Dongdong & Chen, Baian & Zhu, Hongyu & Goh, Hui Hwang & Dong, Yunxuan & Wu, Thomas, 2023. "Short-term wind power prediction based on two-layer decomposition and BiTCN-BiLSTM-attention model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    2. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "Wind power forecasting: A temporal domain generalization approach incorporating hybrid model and adversarial relationship-based training," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    4. Bai, Yun & Deng, Shuyun & Pu, Ziqiang & Li, Chuan, 2024. "Carbon price forecasting using leaky integrator echo state networks with the framework of decomposition-reconstruction-integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    5. Lin Wang & Wuyue An & Feng‐Ting Li, 2024. "Text‐based corn futures price forecasting using improved neural basis expansion network," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2042-2063, September.
    6. Wang, Xiaodi & Hao, Yan & Yang, Wendong, 2024. "Novel wind power ensemble forecasting system based on mixed-frequency modeling and interpretable base model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    7. Dahlen, Niklas & Fehrenkötter, Rieke & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2024. "The new bond on the block — Designing a carbon-linked bond for sustainable investment projects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 316-325.
    8. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zheng, Yichu & Ma, Li & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2024. "Wind power forecasting: A transfer learning approach incorporating temporal convolution and adversarial training," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    10. Xu, Jing & Cui, Zhipeng & Ma, Suxia & Wang, Xiaowei & Zhang, Zhiyao & Zhang, Guoxia, 2024. "Data based digital twin for operational performance optimization in CFB boilers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    11. Gomez, William & Wang, Fu-Kwun & Lo, Shih-Che, 2024. "A hybrid approach based machine learning models in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    12. Taorong Jia & Lixiao Yao & Guoqing Yang & Qi He, 2022. "A Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method of Based on the CEEMDAN-MVO-GRU," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Zhang, Ditian & Tang, Pan, 2023. "Forecasting European Union allowances futures: The role of technical indicators," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    14. Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Wang, Lin, 2023. "Multivariate wind speed forecasting based on multi-objective feature selection approach and hybrid deep learning model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    15. Yajing Gao & Shixiao Guo & Jiafeng Ren & Zheng Zhao & Ali Ehsan & Yanan Zheng, 2018. "An Electric Bus Power Consumption Model and Optimization of Charging Scheduling Concerning Multi-External Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, August.
    16. Zhu, Bangzhu & Wan, Chunzhuo & Wang, Ping, 2022. "Interval forecasting of carbon price: A novel multiscale ensemble forecasting approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Qu, Zhijian & Hou, Xinxing & Li, Jian & Hu, Wenbo, 2024. "Short-term wind farm cluster power prediction based on dual feature extraction and quadratic decomposition aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    18. Xu, Demin & Fei, Shuaipeng & Wang, Zhi & Zhu, Jinyu & Ma, Yuntao, 2024. "Optimum design of Chinese solar greenhouses for maximum energy availability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    19. Beibei Hu & Yunhe Cheng, 2023. "Prediction of Regional Carbon Price in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and Nonlinear Error Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Jamei, Mehdi & Maroufpoor, Saman & Aminpour, Younes & Karbasi, Masoud & Malik, Anurag & Karimi, Bakhtiar, 2022. "Developing hybrid data-intelligent method using Boruta-random forest optimizer for simulation of nitrate distribution pattern," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:14:p:3247-:d:1201138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.