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PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México

Author

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  • Mario Tovar

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

  • Miguel Robles

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

  • Felipe Rashid

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

Abstract

Due to the intermittent nature of solar energy, accurate photovoltaic power predictions are very important for energy integration into existing energy systems. The evolution of deep learning has also opened the possibility to apply neural network models to predict time series, achieving excellent results. In this paper, a five layer CNN-LSTM model is proposed for photovoltaic power predictions using real data from a location in Temixco, Morelos in Mexico. In the proposed hybrid model, the convolutional layer acts like a filter, extracting local features of the data; then the temporal features are extracted by the long short-term memory network. Finally, the performance of the hybrid model with five layers is compared with a single model (a single LSTM), a CNN-LSTM hybrid model with two layers and two well known popular benchmarks. The results also shows that the hybrid neural network model has better prediction effect than the two layer hybrid model, the single prediction model, the Lasso regression or the Ridge regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Tovar & Miguel Robles & Felipe Rashid, 2020. "PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:24:p:6512-:d:459540
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    7. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Tovar Rosas, Mario A. & Pérez, Miguel Robles & Martínez Pérez, E. Rafael, 2022. "Itineraries for charging and discharging a BESS using energy predictions based on a CNN-LSTM neural network model in BCS, Mexico," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1141-1165.
    9. Bianca Goia & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Virtual Power Plant Optimization in Smart Grids: A Narrative Review," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Gianfranco Di Lorenzo & Erika Stracqualursi & Leonardo Micheli & Salvatore Celozzi & Rodolfo Araneo, 2022. "Prognostic Methods for Photovoltaic Systems’ Underperformance and Degradation: Status, Perspectives, and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-6, September.
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