IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i24p6512-d459540.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Tovar

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

  • Miguel Robles

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

  • Felipe Rashid

    (Energy Systems Department, Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Priv. Xochicalco S/N Temixco, Morelos 62580, Mexico)

Abstract

Due to the intermittent nature of solar energy, accurate photovoltaic power predictions are very important for energy integration into existing energy systems. The evolution of deep learning has also opened the possibility to apply neural network models to predict time series, achieving excellent results. In this paper, a five layer CNN-LSTM model is proposed for photovoltaic power predictions using real data from a location in Temixco, Morelos in Mexico. In the proposed hybrid model, the convolutional layer acts like a filter, extracting local features of the data; then the temporal features are extracted by the long short-term memory network. Finally, the performance of the hybrid model with five layers is compared with a single model (a single LSTM), a CNN-LSTM hybrid model with two layers and two well known popular benchmarks. The results also shows that the hybrid neural network model has better prediction effect than the two layer hybrid model, the single prediction model, the Lasso regression or the Ridge regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Tovar & Miguel Robles & Felipe Rashid, 2020. "PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:24:p:6512-:d:459540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/24/6512/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/24/6512/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    2. Ozgur Ozmen & James Nutaro & Michael Starke & Jeffrey Munk & Larry Roberts & Xiao Kou & Piljae Im & Jin Dong & Fangxing Li & Teja Kuruganti & Helia Zandi, 2020. "Power Grid Simulation Testbed for Transactive Energy Management Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Mohsen Khorasany & Donald Azuatalam & Robert Glasgow & Ariel Liebman & Reza Razzaghi, 2020. "Transactive Energy Market for Energy Management in Microgrids: The Monash Microgrid Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Kim, Tae-Young & Cho, Sung-Bae, 2019. "Predicting residential energy consumption using CNN-LSTM neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 72-81.
    5. El-Baz, Wessam & Tzscheutschler, Peter & Wagner, Ulrich, 2019. "Integration of energy markets in microgrids: A double-sided auction with device-oriented bidding strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 625-639.
    6. Gangqiang Li & Huaizhi Wang & Shengli Zhang & Jiantao Xin & Huichuan Liu, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "Photovoltaic power forecasting based LSTM-Convolutional Network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Bartosz Soltowski & David Campos-Gaona & Scott Strachan & Olimpo Anaya-Lara, 2019. "Bottom-Up Electrification Introducing New Smart Grids Architecture—Concept Based on Feasibility Studies Conducted in Rwanda," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Sameer Al-Dahidi & Osama Ayadi & Jehad Adeeb & Mohammad Alrbai & Bashar R. Qawasmeh, 2018. "Extreme Learning Machines for Solar Photovoltaic Power Predictions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Sara Haghifam & Kazem Zare & Mehdi Abapour & Gregorio Muñoz-Delgado & Javier Contreras, 2020. "A Stackelberg Game-Based Approach for Transactive Energy Management in Smart Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-34, July.
    11. AbuBakr Bahaj & Luke Blunden & Christopher Kanani & Patrick James & Isaac Kiva & Zoë Matthews & Heather Price & Hildah Essendi & Jane Falkingham & Gerard George, 2019. "The Impact of an Electrical Mini-grid on the Development of a Rural Community in Kenya," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leidy Gutiérrez & Julian Patiño & Eduardo Duque-Grisales, 2021. "A Comparison of the Performance of Supervised Learning Algorithms for Solar Power Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Maria Krechowicz & Adam Krechowicz & Lech Lichołai & Artur Pawelec & Jerzy Zbigniew Piotrowski & Anna Stępień, 2022. "Reduction of the Risk of Inaccurate Prediction of Electricity Generation from PV Farms Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-21, May.
    3. Tarek Berghout & Mohamed Benbouzid & Leïla-Hayet Mouss, 2021. "Leveraging Label Information in a Knowledge-Driven Approach for Rolling-Element Bearings Remaining Useful Life Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    7. Isaac Gallardo & Daniel Amor & Álvaro Gutiérrez, 2023. "Recent Trends in Real-Time Photovoltaic Prediction Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-17, July.
    8. Tovar Rosas, Mario A. & Pérez, Miguel Robles & Martínez Pérez, E. Rafael, 2022. "Itineraries for charging and discharging a BESS using energy predictions based on a CNN-LSTM neural network model in BCS, Mexico," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1141-1165.
    9. Bianca Goia & Tudor Cioara & Ionut Anghel, 2022. "Virtual Power Plant Optimization in Smart Grids: A Narrative Review," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, April.
    10. Gianfranco Di Lorenzo & Erika Stracqualursi & Leonardo Micheli & Salvatore Celozzi & Rodolfo Araneo, 2022. "Prognostic Methods for Photovoltaic Systems’ Underperformance and Degradation: Status, Perspectives, and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-6, September.
    11. Bibi Ibrahim & Luis Rabelo, 2021. "A Deep Learning Approach for Peak Load Forecasting: A Case Study on Panama," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tovar Rosas, Mario A. & Pérez, Miguel Robles & Martínez Pérez, E. Rafael, 2022. "Itineraries for charging and discharging a BESS using energy predictions based on a CNN-LSTM neural network model in BCS, Mexico," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1141-1165.
    2. Khan, Zulfiqar Ahmad & Hussain, Tanveer & Baik, Sung Wook, 2023. "Dual stream network with attention mechanism for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    3. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Hao Zhen & Dongxiao Niu & Min Yu & Keke Wang & Yi Liang & Xiaomin Xu, 2020. "A Hybrid Deep Learning Model and Comparison for Wind Power Forecasting Considering Temporal-Spatial Feature Extraction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Zang, Haixiang & Xu, Ruiqi & Cheng, Lilin & Ding, Tao & Liu, Ling & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang, 2021. "Residential load forecasting based on LSTM fusing self-attention mechanism with pooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Kumari, Pratima & Toshniwal, Durga, 2021. "Long short term memory–convolutional neural network based deep hybrid approach for solar irradiance forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    7. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    8. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Yang, Hufang & Jiang, Ping & Wang, Ying & Li, Hongmin, 2022. "A fuzzy intelligent forecasting system based on combined fuzzification strategy and improved optimization algorithm for renewable energy power generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    10. Yin, Linfei & Zhang, Bin, 2023. "Relaxed deep generative adversarial networks for real-time economic smart generation dispatch and control of integrated energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 330(PA).
    11. Fachrizal Aksan & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik & Tomasz Sikorski, 2023. "Load Forecasting for the Laser Metal Processing Industry Using VMD and Hybrid Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
    12. Simon Liebermann & Jung-Sup Um & YoungSeok Hwang & Stephan Schlüter, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Neural Network-Based Short-Term Solar Irradiation Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Duan, Jikai & Zuo, Hongchao & Bai, Yulong & Chang, Mingheng & Chen, Xiangyue & Wang, Wenpeng & Ma, Lei & Chen, Bolong, 2023. "A multistep short-term solar radiation forecasting model using fully convolutional neural networks and chaotic aquila optimization combining WRF-Solar model results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    15. Korkmaz, Deniz, 2021. "SolarNet: A hybrid reliable model based on convolutional neural network and variational mode decomposition for hourly photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    16. Rodríguez, Fermín & Martín, Fernando & Fontán, Luis & Galarza, Ainhoa, 2021. "Ensemble of machine learning and spatiotemporal parameters to forecast very short-term solar irradiation to compute photovoltaic generators’ output power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    17. Md Mijanur Rahman & Mohammad Shakeri & Sieh Kiong Tiong & Fatema Khatun & Nowshad Amin & Jagadeesh Pasupuleti & Mohammad Kamrul Hasan, 2021. "Prospective Methodologies in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-28, February.
    18. Elham M. Al-Ali & Yassine Hajji & Yahia Said & Manel Hleili & Amal M. Alanzi & Ali H. Laatar & Mohamed Atri, 2023. "Solar Energy Production Forecasting Based on a Hybrid CNN-LSTM-Transformer Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Soleimanzade, Mohammad Amin & Sadrzadeh, Mohtada, 2021. "Deep learning-based energy management of a hybrid photovoltaic-reverse osmosis-pressure retarded osmosis system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    20. Tserenpurev Chuluunsaikhan & Jeong-Hun Kim & Yoonsung Shin & Sanghyun Choi & Aziz Nasridinov, 2022. "Feasibility Study on the Influence of Data Partition Strategies on Ensemble Deep Learning: The Case of Forecasting Power Generation in South Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:24:p:6512-:d:459540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.