IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i7p2457-d780658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Hugo Wentz

    (Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory (ILATIT), Federal University of Latin American Integration (UNILA), Foz do Iguaçu 85867-000, PR, Brazil)

  • Joylan Nunes Maciel

    (Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory (ILATIT), Federal University of Latin American Integration (UNILA), Foz do Iguaçu 85867-000, PR, Brazil
    Research Group on Energy & Energy Sustainability (GPEnSE), Cabo de Santo Agostinho 54518-430, PE, Brazil)

  • Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma

    (Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory (ILATIT), Federal University of Latin American Integration (UNILA), Foz do Iguaçu 85867-000, PR, Brazil
    Research Group on Energy & Energy Sustainability (GPEnSE), Cabo de Santo Agostinho 54518-430, PE, Brazil)

  • Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior

    (Research Group on Energy & Energy Sustainability (GPEnSE), Cabo de Santo Agostinho 54518-430, PE, Brazil
    Academic Unit of Cabo de Santo Agostinho (UACSA), Federal Rural University of Pernambuco (UFRPE), Cabo de Santo Agostinho 54518-430, PE, Brazil)

Abstract

The use of renewable energies, such as Photovoltaic (PV) solar power, is necessary to meet the growing energy consumption. PV solar power generation has intrinsic characteristics related to the climatic variables that cause intermittence during the generation process, promoting instabilities and insecurity in the electrical system. One of the solutions for this problem uses methods for the Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation (PSPPG). In this context, the aim of this study is to develop and compare the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance between Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long-Term Short Memory (LSTM) network models, from a comprehensive analysis that simultaneously considers two distinct sets of exogenous meteorological input variables and three short-term prediction horizons (1, 15 and 60 min), in a controlled experimental environment. The results indicate that there is a significant difference ( p < 0.001) in the prediction accuracy between the ANN and LSTM models, with better overall prediction accuracy skill for the LSTM models (MAPE = 19.5%), except for the 60 min prediction horizon. Furthermore, the accuracy difference between the ANN and LSTM models decreased as the prediction horizon increased, and no significant influence was observed on the accuracy of the prediction with both sets of evaluated meteorological input variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Hugo Wentz & Joylan Nunes Maciel & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2022. "Solar Irradiance Forecasting to Short-Term PV Power: Accuracy Comparison of ANN and LSTM Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:7:p:2457-:d:780658
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/7/2457/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/7/2457/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vishnu Suresh & Przemyslaw Janik & Jacek Rezmer & Zbigniew Leonowicz, 2020. "Forecasting Solar PV Output Using Convolutional Neural Networks with a Sliding Window Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Voyant, Cyril & Notton, Gilles & Kalogirou, Soteris & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Paoli, Christophe & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis, 2017. "Machine learning methods for solar radiation forecasting: A review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 569-582.
    3. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Tingting Zhu & Yiren Guo & Zhenye Li & Cong Wang, 2021. "Solar Radiation Prediction Based on Convolution Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Das, Utpal Kumar & Tey, Kok Soon & Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi & Mekhilef, Saad & Idris, Moh Yamani Idna & Van Deventer, Willem & Horan, Bend & Stojcevski, Alex, 2018. "Forecasting of photovoltaic power generation and model optimization: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 912-928.
    6. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    7. Mario Tovar & Miguel Robles & Felipe Rashid, 2020. "PV Power Prediction, Using CNN-LSTM Hybrid Neural Network Model. Case of Study: Temixco-Morelos, México," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Shab Gbémou & Julien Eynard & Stéphane Thil & Emmanuel Guillot & Stéphane Grieu, 2021. "A Comparative Study of Machine Learning-Based Methods for Global Horizontal Irradiance Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Pang, Zhihong & Niu, Fuxin & O’Neill, Zheng, 2020. "Solar radiation prediction using recurrent neural network and artificial neural network: A case study with comparisons," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 279-289.
    10. Li, Pengtao & Zhou, Kaile & Lu, Xinhui & Yang, Shanlin, 2020. "A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    11. Gueymard, Christian A., 2014. "A review of validation methodologies and statistical performance indicators for modeled solar radiation data: Towards a better bankability of solar projects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1024-1034.
    12. Donghun Lee & Kwanho Kim, 2019. "Recurrent Neural Network-Based Hourly Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Output Using Meteorological Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    13. Ying Wang & Bo Feng & Qing-Song Hua & Li Sun, 2021. "Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting: A Combined Long Short-Term Memory and Gaussian Process Regression Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Jessica Wojtkiewicz & Matin Hosseini & Raju Gottumukkala & Terrence Lynn Chambers, 2019. "Hour-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multivariate Gated Recurrent Units," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Hossein Moayedi & Amir Mosavi, 2021. "An Innovative Metaheuristic Strategy for Solar Energy Management through a Neural Networks Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hugo Gaspar Hernandez-Palma & Jonny Rafael Plaza Alvarado & Jesús Enrique García Guiliany & Guilherme Luiz Dotto & Claudete Gindri Ramos, 2024. "Implications of Machine Learning in the Generation of Renewable Energies in Latin America from a Globalized Vision: A Systematic Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Eşlik, Ardan Hüseyin & Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoğlu, Fatih Onur, 2022. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting with a novel image processing-based deep learning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1490-1505.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nunes Maciel, Joylan & Javier Gimenez Ledesma, Jorge & Hideo Ando Junior, Oswaldo, 2024. "Hybrid prediction method of solar irradiance applied to short-term photovoltaic energy generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Rial A. Rajagukguk & Raden A. A. Ramadhan & Hyun-Jin Lee, 2020. "A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Putri Nor Liyana Mohamad Radzi & Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Noraisyah Mohamed Shah, 2023. "Review on the Application of Photovoltaic Forecasting Using Machine Learning for Very Short- to Long-Term Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    4. du Plessis, A.A. & Strauss, J.M. & Rix, A.J., 2021. "Short-term solar power forecasting: Investigating the ability of deep learning models to capture low-level utility-scale Photovoltaic system behaviour," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    5. Fachrizal Aksan & Yang Li & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik, 2023. "Multistep Forecasting of Power Flow Based on LSTM Autoencoder: A Study Case in Regional Grid Cluster Proposal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, June.
    6. Abdel-Rahman Hedar & Majid Almaraashi & Alaa E. Abdel-Hakim & Mahmoud Abdulrahim, 2021. "Hybrid Machine Learning for Solar Radiation Prediction in Reduced Feature Spaces," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-29, November.
    7. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Nguyen, Thi Ngoc & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    9. Llinet Benavides Cesar & Rodrigo Amaro e Silva & Miguel Ángel Manso Callejo & Calimanut-Ionut Cira, 2022. "Review on Spatio-Temporal Solar Forecasting Methods Driven by In Situ Measurements or Their Combination with Satellite and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Estimates," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-23, June.
    10. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    11. Sergio Cantillo-Luna & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & David Celeita & George Anders, 2023. "Deep and Machine Learning Models to Forecast Photovoltaic Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    13. Verdone, Alessio & Scardapane, Simone & Panella, Massimo, 2024. "Explainable Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks for multi-site photovoltaic energy production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    14. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    15. Siripat Somchit & Palamy Thongbouasy & Chitchai Srithapon & Rongrit Chatthaworn, 2023. "Optimal Transmission Expansion Planning with Long-Term Solar Photovoltaic Generation Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-17, February.
    16. Richard Guanoluisa & Diego Arcos-Aviles & Marco Flores-Calero & Wilmar Martinez & Francesc Guinjoan, 2023. "Photovoltaic Power Forecast Using Deep Learning Techniques with Hyperparameters Based on Bayesian Optimization: A Case Study in the Galapagos Islands," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-18, August.
    17. Gupta, Priya & Singh, Rhythm, 2023. "Combining simple and less time complex ML models with multivariate empirical mode decomposition to obtain accurate GHI forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    18. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    19. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    20. Fjelkestam Frederiksen, Cornelia A. & Cai, Zuansi, 2022. "Novel machine learning approach for solar photovoltaic energy output forecast using extra-terrestrial solar irradiance," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:7:p:2457-:d:780658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.