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Evaluating the Causal Relations between the Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based Fossil Fuel CO 2 Flux

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  • YoungSeok Hwang

    (Department of Climate Change, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea)

  • Jung-Sup Um

    (Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea)

  • JunHwa Hwang

    (Department of Climate Change, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea)

  • Stephan Schlüter

    (Department of Mathematics, Natural and Economic Sciences, Ulm University of Applied Sciences, 89075 Ulm, Germany)

Abstract

The Kaya identity is a powerful index displaying the influence of individual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources on CO 2 emissions. The sources are disaggregated into representative factors such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity of the GDP, and carbon footprint of energy. However, the Kaya identity has limitations as it is merely an accounting equation and does not allow for an examination of the hidden causalities among the factors. Analyzing the causal relationships between the individual Kaya identity factors and their respective subcomponents is necessary to identify the real and relevant drivers of CO 2 emissions. In this study we evaluated these causal relationships by conducting a parallel multiple mediation analysis, whereby we used the fossil fuel CO 2 flux based on the Open-Source Data Inventory of Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (ODIAC). We found out that the indirect effects from the decomposed variables on the CO 2 flux are significant. However, the Kaya identity factors show neither strong nor even significant mediating effects. This demonstrates that the influence individual Kaya identity factors have on CO 2 directly emitted to the atmosphere is not primarily due to changes in their input factors, namely the decomposed variables.

Suggested Citation

  • YoungSeok Hwang & Jung-Sup Um & JunHwa Hwang & Stephan Schlüter, 2020. "Evaluating the Causal Relations between the Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based Fossil Fuel CO 2 Flux," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:22:p:6009-:d:446559
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