IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i5p916-d212457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of the Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Guo-Feng Fan

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Ping Ding Shan University, Ping Ding Shan 467000, China)

  • Yan-Hui Guo

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Ping Ding Shan University, Ping Ding Shan 467000, China)

  • Jia-Mei Zheng

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Ping Ding Shan University, Ping Ding Shan 467000, China)

  • Wei-Chiang Hong

    (Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology/No. 58, Sec. 2, Sichuan Rd., Panchiao, New Taipei 226, Taiwan)

Abstract

In this paper, the historical power load data from the National Electricity Market (Australia) is used to analyze the characteristics and regulations of electricity (the average value of every eight hours). Then, considering the inverse of Euclidean distance as the weight, this paper proposes a novel short-term load forecasting model based on the weighted k-nearest neighbor algorithm to receive higher satisfied accuracy. In addition, the forecasting errors are compared with the back-propagation neural network model and the autoregressive moving average model. The comparison results demonstrate that the proposed forecasting model could reflect variation trend and has good fitting ability in short-term load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo-Feng Fan & Yan-Hui Guo & Jia-Mei Zheng & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Application of the Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:5:p:916-:d:212457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/5/916/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/5/916/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fan, Guo-Feng & Peng, Li-Ling & Hong, Wei-Chiang, 2018. "Short term load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction algorithm and bi-square kernel regression model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 13-33.
    2. Ding, Song & Hipel, Keith W. & Dang, Yao-guo, 2018. "Forecasting China's electricity consumption using a new grey prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 314-328.
    3. Wang, Pu & Liu, Bidong & Hong, Tao, 2016. "Electric load forecasting with recency effect: A big data approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 585-597.
    4. Ming-Wei Li & Jing Geng & Wei-Chiang Hong & Yang Zhang, 2018. "Hybridizing Chaotic and Quantum Mechanisms and Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm with Least Squares Support Vector Regression Model in Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1, August.
    5. Andini, Corrado & Cabral, Ricardo & Santos, José Eusébio, 2019. "The macroeconomic impact of renewable electricity power generation projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1047-1059.
    6. He, Yaoyao & Qin, Yang & Wang, Shuo & Wang, Xu & Wang, Chao, 2019. "Electricity consumption probability density forecasting method based on LASSO-Quantile Regression Neural Network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 565-575.
    7. Yongquan Dong & Zichen Zhang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "A Hybrid Seasonal Mechanism with a Chaotic Cuckoo Search Algorithm with a Support Vector Regression Model for Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    8. Nie, Chun-Xiao & Song, Fu-Tie, 2018. "Analyzing the stock market based on the structure of kNN network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 148-159.
    9. Moreno, Blanca & Díaz, Guzmán, 2019. "The impact of virtual power plant technology composition on wholesale electricity prices: A comparative study of some European Union electricity markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 100-108.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sholeh Hadi Pramono & Mahdin Rohmatillah & Eka Maulana & Rini Nur Hasanah & Fakhriy Hario, 2019. "Deep Learning-Based Short-Term Load Forecasting for Supporting Demand Response Program in Hybrid Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-16, August.
    2. Hongli Liu & Luoqi Wang & Ji Li & Lei Shao & Delong Zhang, 2023. "Research on Smart Power Sales Strategy Considering Load Forecasting and Optimal Allocation of Energy Storage System in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
    3. Vincent Le & Joshua Ramirez & Miltiadis Alamaniotis, 2021. "Intelligent Room-Based Identification of Electricity Consumption with an Ensemble Learning Method in Smart Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Haicheng Ling & Pierre-Yves Massé & Thibault Rihet & Frédéric Wurtz, 2023. "Realistic Nudging through ICT Pipelines to Help Improve Energy Self-Consumption for Management in Energy Communities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Umar Javed & Khalid Ijaz & Muhammad Jawad & Ejaz A. Ansari & Noman Shabbir & Lauri Kütt & Oleksandr Husev, 2021. "Exploratory Data Analysis Based Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    7. Fatma Yaprakdal, 2022. "An Ensemble Deep-Learning-Based Model for Hour-Ahead Load Forecasting with a Feature Selection Approach: A Comparative Study with State-of-the-Art Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Gibson Kimutai & Alexander Ngenzi & Rutabayiro Ngoga Said & Ambrose Kiprop & Anna Förster, 2020. "An Optimum Tea Fermentation Detection Model Based on Deep Convolutional Neural Networks," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Feng, Yanxiao & Duan, Qiuhua & Chen, Xi & Yakkali, Sai Santosh & Wang, Julian, 2021. "Space cooling energy usage prediction based on utility data for residential buildings using machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    10. Juan Carlos Bravo-Rodríguez & Francisco J. Torres & María D. Borrás, 2020. "Hybrid Machine Learning Models for Classifying Power Quality Disturbances: A Comparative Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.
    11. Lun-Ping Hung & Weidong Huang & Jhih-Yu Shih & Chien-Liang Liu, 2021. "A Novel IoT Based Positioning and Shadowing System for Dementia Training," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo‐Feng Fan & Yan‐Hui Guo & Jia‐Mei Zheng & Wei‐Chiang Hong, 2020. "A generalized regression model based on hybrid empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression with back‐propagation neural network for mid‐short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 737-756, August.
    2. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    3. Sungwoo Park & Jihoon Moon & Seungwon Jung & Seungmin Rho & Sung Wook Baik & Eenjun Hwang, 2020. "A Two-Stage Industrial Load Forecasting Scheme for Day-Ahead Combined Cooling, Heating and Power Scheduling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Sana Mujeeb & Nadeem Javaid & Manzoor Ilahi & Zahid Wadud & Farruh Ishmanov & Muhammad Khalil Afzal, 2019. "Deep Long Short-Term Memory: A New Price and Load Forecasting Scheme for Big Data in Smart Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-29, February.
    5. Zhu, Xiaoyue & Dang, Yaoguo & Ding, Song, 2020. "Using a self-adaptive grey fractional weighted model to forecast Jiangsu’s electricity consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    6. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    7. Wei-Chiang Hong & Guo-Feng Fan, 2019. "Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression Model for Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Xingcai Zhou & Jiangyan Wang, 2021. "Panel semiparametric quantile regression neural network for electricity consumption forecasting," Papers 2103.00711, arXiv.org.
    9. Xin-gang, Zhao & Ze-qi, Zhang & Yi-min, Xie & Jin, Meng, 2020. "Economic-environmental dispatch of microgrid based on improved quantum particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Wu, Wen-Ze & Pang, Haodan & Zheng, Chengli & Xie, Wanli & Liu, Chong, 2021. "Predictive analysis of quarterly electricity consumption via a novel seasonal fractional nonhomogeneous discrete grey model: A case of Hubei in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Yuanyuan Zhou & Min Zhou & Qing Xia & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2019. "Construction of EMD-SVR-QGA Model for Electricity Consumption: Case of University Dormitory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-23, December.
    12. Chen, Hai-Bao & Pei, Ling-Ling & Zhao, Yu-Feng, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal variations in electricity consumption and electricity usage efficiency of industrial sectors using a grey modeling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    13. Ding, Song & Li, Ruojin & Wu, Shu & Zhou, Weijie, 2021. "Application of a novel structure-adaptative grey model with adjustable time power item for nuclear energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    14. Tongxiang Liu & Yu Jin & Yuyang Gao, 2019. "A New Hybrid Approach for Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Applying Support Vector Machine with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Whale Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    15. Alexis Gerossier & Robin Girard & Alexis Bocquet & George Kariniotakis, 2018. "Robust Day-Ahead Forecasting of Household Electricity Demand and Operational Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Shahzad Aslam & Nasir Ayub & Umer Farooq & Muhammad Junaid Alvi & Fahad R. Albogamy & Gul Rukh & Syed Irtaza Haider & Ahmad Taher Azar & Rasool Bukhsh, 2021. "Towards Electric Price and Load Forecasting Using CNN-Based Ensembler in Smart Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-28, November.
    17. Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya & Kant, Vibhor, 2019. "A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 460-477.
    18. Yuval Beck & Ram Machlev, 2019. "Harmonic Loads Classification by Means of Currents’ Physical Components," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-18, October.
    19. Cheng-Hong Yang & Po-Yin Chang, 2020. "Forecasting the Demand for Container Throughput Using a Mixed-Precision Neural Architecture Based on CNN–LSTM," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-17, October.
    20. Seon Hyeog Kim & Gyul Lee & Gu-Young Kwon & Do-In Kim & Yong-June Shin, 2018. "Deep Learning Based on Multi-Decomposition for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:5:p:916-:d:212457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.