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A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting

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  • Singh, Priyanka
  • Dwivedi, Pragya
  • Kant, Vibhor

Abstract

Load forecasting is a challenging task in power markets that require attention in generating accurate and stable load to deal with planning and management strategies. In past few years, several intelligence-based models have been introduced for precise load forecast. Among them, artificial neural network (ANN) seems more effective and capable to handle the non-linear behavior of load and generates an accurate forecast. However, it suffers from overfitting problem thus reducing the accuracy of load forecasts. To overcome this problem, a hybrid methodology namely ANN-IEAMCGM-R, for short-term load forecast is proposed in this paper. ANN is integrated with an enhanced evolutionary algorithm (IEAMCGM-R) to find optimal network weights. This evolutionary algorithm is composed of improved environmental adaptation method with real parameters (IEAM-R) and our proposed Controlled Gaussian Mutation (CGM) method to bring greater diversity within the population resulting in a higher convergence of solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya & Kant, Vibhor, 2019. "A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 460-477.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:174:y:2019:i:c:p:460-477
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2019.02.141
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    2. Talaat, M. & Farahat, M.A. & Mansour, Noura & Hatata, A.Y., 2020. "Load forecasting based on grasshopper optimization and a multilayer feed-forward neural network using regressive approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
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    5. Alfredo Candela Esclapez & Miguel López García & Sergio Valero Verdú & Carolina Senabre Blanes, 2022. "Automatic Selection of Temperature Variables for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    6. Wenhao Chen & Guangjie Han & Hongbo Zhu & Lyuchao Liao, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting with an Ensemble Model Using Densely Residual Block and Bi-LSTM Based on the Attention Mechanism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Malekizadeh, M. & Karami, H. & Karimi, M. & Moshari, A. & Sanjari, M.J., 2020. "Short-term load forecast using ensemble neuro-fuzzy model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Yang, Wendong & Sun, Shaolong & Hao, Yan & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "A novel machine learning-based electricity price forecasting model based on optimal model selection strategy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    9. Zhang, Wenyu & Chen, Qian & Yan, Jianyong & Zhang, Shuai & Xu, Jiyuan, 2021. "A novel asynchronous deep reinforcement learning model with adaptive early forecasting method and reward incentive mechanism for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    10. Kottath, Rahul & Singh, Priyanka, 2023. "Influencer buddy optimization: Algorithm and its application to electricity load and price forecasting problem," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
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    12. Singh, Priyanka & Kottath, Rahul, 2022. "Influencer-defaulter mutation-based optimization algorithms for predicting electricity prices," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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