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A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Author

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  • Wei Sun

    (Department of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, China)

  • Chongchong Zhang

    (Department of Business Administration, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, China)

Abstract

Accurate power-load forecasting for the safe and stable operation of a power system is of great significance. However, the random non-stationary electric-load time series which is affected by many factors hinders the improvement of prediction accuracy. In light of this, this paper innovatively combines factor analysis and similar-day thinking into a prediction model for short-term load forecasting. After factor analysis, the latent factors that affect load essentially are extracted from an original 22 influence factors. Then, considering the contribution rate of history load data, partial auto correlation function (PACF) is employed to further analyse the impact effect. In addition, ant colony clustering (ACC) is adopted to excavate the similar days that have common factors with the forecast day. Finally, an extreme learning machine (ELM), whose input weights and bias threshold are optimized by a bat algorithm (BA), hereafter referred as BA-ELM, is established to predict the electric load. A simulation experience using data deriving from Yangquan City shows its effectiveness and applicability, and the result demonstrates that the hybrid model can meet the needs of short-term electric load prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Sun & Chongchong Zhang, 2018. "A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1282-:d:146950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Yajing Gao & Shixiao Guo & Jiafeng Ren & Zheng Zhao & Ali Ehsan & Yanan Zheng, 2018. "An Electric Bus Power Consumption Model and Optimization of Charging Scheduling Concerning Multi-External Factors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, August.

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