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Enhancing Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting through Multiresolution Analysis and Echo State Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Hugo Tavares Vieira Gouveia

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-533, PE, Brazil)

  • Ronaldo Ribeiro Barbosa De Aquino

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife 50740-533, PE, Brazil)

  • Aida Araújo Ferreira

    (Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Pernambuco (IFPE), Recife 50740-545, PE, Brazil)

Abstract

This article suggests the application of multiresolution analysis by Wavelet Transform—WT and Echo State Networks—ESN for the development of tools capable of providing wind speed and power generation forecasting. The models were developed to forecast the hourly mean wind speeds, which are applied to the wind turbine’s power curve to obtain wind power forecasts with horizons ranging from 1 to 24 h ahead, for three different locations of the Brazilian Northeast. The average improvement of Normalized Mean Absolute Error—NMAE for the first six, twelve, eighteen and twenty-four hourly power generation forecasts obtained by using the models proposed in this article were 70.87%, 71.99%, 67.77% and 58.52%, respectively. These results of improvements in relation to the Persistence Model—PM are among the best published results to date for wind power forecasting. The adopted methodology was adequate, assuring statistically reliable forecasts. When comparing the performance of fully-connected feedforward Artificial Neural Networks—ANN and ESN, it was observed that both are powerful time series forecasting tools, but the ESN proved to be more suited for wind power forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Tavares Vieira Gouveia & Ronaldo Ribeiro Barbosa De Aquino & Aida Araújo Ferreira, 2018. "Enhancing Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting through Multiresolution Analysis and Echo State Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:4:p:824-:d:139331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nantian Huang & Enkai Xing & Guowei Cai & Zhiyong Yu & Bin Qi & Lin Lin, 2018. "Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Low Redundancy Feature Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Pingping Yun & Yongfeng Ren & Yu Xue, 2018. "Energy-Storage Optimization Strategy for Reducing Wind Power Fluctuation via Markov Prediction and PSO Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Paweł Piotrowski & Inajara Rutyna & Dariusz Baczyński & Marcin Kopyt, 2022. "Evaluation Metrics for Wind Power Forecasts: A Comprehensive Review and Statistical Analysis of Errors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Alexandru Pîrjan & George Căruțașu & Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu, 2018. "Designing, Developing, and Implementing a Forecasting Method for the Produced and Consumed Electricity in the Case of Small Wind Farms Situated on Quite Complex Hilly Terrain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-42, October.

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