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A New Wind Speed Forecasting Modeling Strategy Using Two-Stage Decomposition, Feature Selection and DAWNN

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  • Sizhou Sun

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China
    School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072, China)

  • Lisheng Wei

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China)

  • Jie Xu

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China)

  • Zhenni Jin

    (College of Electrical Engineering, Anhui Polytechnic University, Wuhu 241000, China)

Abstract

Accurate wind speed prediction plays a crucial role on the routine operational management of wind farms. However, the irregular characteristics of wind speed time series makes it hard to predict accurately. This study develops a novel forecasting strategy for multi-step wind speed forecasting (WSF) and illustrates its effectiveness. During the WSF process, a two-stage signal decomposition method combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) is exploited to decompose the empirical wind speed data. The EEMD algorithm is firstly employed to disassemble wind speed data into several intrinsic mode function (IMFs) and one residual (Res). The highest frequency component, IMF1, obtained by EEMD is further disassembled into different modes by the VMD algorithm. Then, feature selection is applied to eliminate the illusive components in the input-matrix predetermined by partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and the parameters in the proposed wavelet neural network (WNN) model are optimized for improving the forecasting performance, which are realized by hybrid backtracking search optimization algorithm (HBSA) integrating binary-valued BSA (BBSA) with real-valued BSA (RBSA), simultaneously. Combinations of Morlet function and Mexican hat function by weighted coefficient are constructed as activation functions for WNN, namely DAWNN, to enhance its regression performance. In the end, the final WSF values are obtained by assembling the prediction results of each decomposed components. Two sets of actual wind speed data are applied to evaluate and analyze the proposed forecasting strategy. Forecasting results, comparisons, and analysis illustrate that the proposed EEMD/VMD-HSBA-DAWNN is an effective model when employed in multi-step WSF.

Suggested Citation

  • Sizhou Sun & Lisheng Wei & Jie Xu & Zhenni Jin, 2019. "A New Wind Speed Forecasting Modeling Strategy Using Two-Stage Decomposition, Feature Selection and DAWNN," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:3:p:334-:d:199748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Can Ding & Yiyuan Zhou & Qingchang Ding & Kaiming Li, 2022. "Integrated Carbon-Capture-Based Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Power Systems Based on EEMD-LSTM-SVR Wind Power Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Wu, Binrong & Wang, Lin, 2024. "Two-stage decomposition and temporal fusion transformers for interpretable wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
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    6. Jianguo Zhou & Qiqi Wang, 2021. "Forecasting Carbon Price with Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Optimized Extreme Learning Machine," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Hassan, Bryar A. & Rashid, Tarik A., 2020. "Operational framework for recent advances in backtracking search optimisation algorithm: A systematic review and performance evaluation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).

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