IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v52y2015icp876-889.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new semiparametric and EEMD based framework for mid-term electricity demand forecasting in China: Hidden characteristic extraction and probability density prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Shao, Zhen
  • Gao, Fei
  • Yang, Shan-Lin
  • Yu, Ben-gong

Abstract

One of the prime missions of the mid-long term electricity demand forecasting involves investigating the multidimensional fluctuation characteristics so that planners can sharpen their understanding of the intrinsic variation trend. To some extent, different facets of the actual fluctuation characteristics can be separated into components, and we can implement more targeted forecast by treating them separately and making more effective response to these characteristics. The purpose of this study is to present a new framework of mid-term demand forecasting along with the semi-parametric model and fluctuation feature decomposition technology, and to generate practical and reliable probability forecast through the application of measurable amount of external variables. To demonstrate the effectiveness, the framework is applied to the case study concerning the identification of potential volatility characteristic and long-term forecast (24-steps point forecasts and longer time scale probability forecasts up to January 2021) in Suzhou and Guangzhou, China. As expected, our proposed approach shows an outperformance result compare to the common decomposition forecast methods. The results also revealed that the extracted components present the opportunity to capture some of the hidden, but potentially important characteristics (e.g., climate fluctuation and economic development) from the original consumption data.

Suggested Citation

  • Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Yang, Shan-Lin & Yu, Ben-gong, 2015. "A new semiparametric and EEMD based framework for mid-term electricity demand forecasting in China: Hidden characteristic extraction and probability density prediction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 876-889.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:876-889
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115008060
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.159?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. M. Robinson, 1989. "Hypothesis Testing in Semiparametric and Nonparametric Models for Econometric Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(4), pages 511-534.
    2. Guo, Zhenhai & Zhao, Weigang & Lu, Haiyan & Wang, Jianzhou, 2012. "Multi-step forecasting for wind speed using a modified EMD-based artificial neural network model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 241-249.
    3. Baltagi, Badi H. & Jung, Byoung Cheol & Song, Seuck Heun, 2010. "Testing for heteroskedasticity and serial correlation in a random effects panel data model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 122-124, February.
    4. Manthos Delis & Maria Iosifidi & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2014. "On the Estimation of Marginal Cost," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 543-556, June.
    5. Raimund Kovacevic & David Wozabal, 2014. "A semiparametric model for electricity spot prices," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 344-356.
    6. Yu, Lean & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2008. "Forecasting crude oil price with an EMD-based neural network ensemble learning paradigm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2623-2635, September.
    7. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    8. Mestekemper, Thomas & Kauermann, Göran & Smith, Michael S., 2013. "A comparison of periodic autoregressive and dynamic factor models in intraday energy demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12.
    9. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Lai, Kin Keung, 2012. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting using wavelet decomposed ensemble model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 564-574.
    10. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    11. Chi‐ming Wong & Robert Kohn, 1996. "A Bayesian Approach To Estimating And Forecasting Additive Nonparametric Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 203-220, March.
    12. OrtizBeviá, M.J. & RuizdeElvira, A. & Alvarez-García, F.J., 2014. "The influence of meteorological variability on the mid-term evolution of the electricity load," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 850-856.
    13. Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2014. "Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-91.
    14. Wang, Chi-hsiang & Grozev, George & Seo, Seongwon, 2012. "Decomposition and statistical analysis for regional electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 313-325.
    15. Yujiao Yang & Yuhang Xu & Qiongxia Song, 2012. "Spline confidence bands for variance functions in nonparametric time series regressive models," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 699-714.
    16. Mirasgedis, S. & Sarafidis, Y. & Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D.P. & Moschovits, M. & Karagiannis, F. & Papakonstantinou, D., 2006. "Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-227.
    17. Samet, Haidar & Marzbani, Fatemeh, 2014. "Quantizing the deterministic nonlinearity in wind speed time series," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1143-1154.
    18. Flores, Juan J. & Graff, Mario & Rodriguez, Hector, 2012. "Evolutive design of ARMA and ANN models for time series forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 225-230.
    19. Dashti, Reza & Afsharnia, Saeed & Ghasemi, Hassan, 2010. "A new long term load management model for asset governance of electrical distribution systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 3661-3667, December.
    20. An, Ning & Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Shang, Duo & Zhao, Erdong, 2013. "Using multi-output feedforward neural network with empirical mode decomposition based signal filtering for electricity demand forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 279-288.
    21. Bianco, Vincenzo & Manca, Oronzio & Nardini, Sergio, 2009. "Electricity consumption forecasting in Italy using linear regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1413-1421.
    22. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    23. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Zhang, Qiang & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "Multivariate statistical and similarity measure based semiparametric modeling of the probability distribution: A novel approach to the case study of mid-long term electricity consumption forecasting i," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 502-518.
    24. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Pan, Di-fu & Li, Yan-fei, 2013. "Forecasting models for wind speed using wavelet, wavelet packet, time series and Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 191-208.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dongxiao Niu & Weibo Zhao & Si Li & Rongjun Chen, 2018. "Cost Forecasting of Substation Projects Based on Cuckoo Search Algorithm and Support Vector Machines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Wei, Yixuan & Xia, Liang & Pan, Song & Wu, Jinshun & Zhang, Xingxing & Han, Mengjie & Zhang, Weiya & Xie, Jingchao & Li, Qingping, 2019. "Prediction of occupancy level and energy consumption in office building using blind system identification and neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 276-294.
    3. Lei Jiang & Ling Bai, 2017. "Revisiting the Granger Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Multi-Timescale Decomposition Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Jin, Feng & Li, Yongwu & Sun, Shaolong & Li, Hongtao, 2020. "Forecasting air passenger demand with a new hybrid ensemble approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Wang, Siyan & Sun, Xun & Lall, Upmanu, 2017. "A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for predicting summer residential electricity demand across the U.S.A," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 601-611.
    6. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    7. Shao, Zhen & Yang, ShanLin & Gao, Fei & Zhou, KaiLe & Lin, Peng, 2017. "A new electricity price prediction strategy using mutual information-based SVM-RFE classification," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 330-341.
    8. Wei Sun & Qi Gao, 2019. "Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Linear–Nonlinear Combination Optimization Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-27, June.
    9. Gao, Tian & Niu, Dongxiao & Ji, Zhengsen & Sun, Lijie, 2022. "Mid-term electricity demand forecasting using improved variational mode decomposition and extreme learning machine optimized by sparrow search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    10. Wang, Lei & Wang, Xinyu & Zhao, Zhongchao, 2024. "Mid-term electricity demand forecasting using improved multi-mode reconstruction and particle swarm-enhanced support vector regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    11. Li, Chuan & Tao, Ying & Ao, Wengang & Yang, Shuai & Bai, Yun, 2018. "Improving forecasting accuracy of daily enterprise electricity consumption using a random forest based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1220-1227.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    2. Yu, Lean & Wang, Zishu & Tang, Ling, 2015. "A decomposition–ensemble model with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for crude oil price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 251-267.
    3. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Zhang, Qiang & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "Multivariate statistical and similarity measure based semiparametric modeling of the probability distribution: A novel approach to the case study of mid-long term electricity consumption forecasting i," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 502-518.
    4. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & Wu, Zhanchi & Zhang, Tao & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Forecasting carbon price using empirical mode decomposition and evolutionary least squares support vector regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 521-530.
    5. Wang, Siyan & Sun, Xun & Lall, Upmanu, 2017. "A hierarchical Bayesian regression model for predicting summer residential electricity demand across the U.S.A," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 601-611.
    6. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    7. Habeebur Rahman & Iniyan Selvarasan & Jahitha Begum A, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of Total Energy Consumption for India-A Black Box Based Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, December.
    8. Chabouni, Naima & Belarbi, Yacine & Benhassine, Wassim, 2020. "Electricity load dynamics, temperature and seasonality Nexus in Algeria," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    10. Nam, KiJeon & Hwangbo, Soonho & Yoo, ChangKyoo, 2020. "A deep learning-based forecasting model for renewable energy scenarios to guide sustainable energy policy: A case study of Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Wang, Shuai & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shouyang, 2011. "A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6542-6554.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O., 2016. "Modeling energy demand: Some emerging issues," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1470-1480.
    13. Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
    14. Zhao, Weigang & Wang, Jianzhou & Lu, Haiyan, 2014. "Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 80-91.
    15. Cheng, Fangzheng & Li, Tian & Wei, Yi-ming & Fan, Tijun, 2019. "The VEC-NAR model for short-term forecasting of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 656-667.
    16. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    17. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
    18. Weide Li & Xuan Yang & Hao Li & Lili Su, 2017. "Hybrid Forecasting Approach Based on GRNN Neural Network and SVR Machine for Electricity Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Angelopoulos, Dimitrios & Siskos, Yannis & Psarras, John, 2019. "Disaggregating time series on multiple criteria for robust forecasting: The case of long-term electricity demand in Greece," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 252-265.
    20. Hu, Junjie & López Cabrera, Brenda & Melzer, Awdesch, 2021. "Advanced statistical learning on short term load process forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-020, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:876-889. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.