Does “Zero Growth Policy” Affect Environmental Productivity of Wheat Production in China?

Recently, many environmental regulations (ER) have been enacted to achieve the agricultural green development goal. After the introduction of the “Zero Growth Policy (ZGP)”, compound fertilizers kept increasing, albeit three fertilizers—N fertilizer, P fertilizer, and K fertilizer—decreased after the launch of the ZGP. In this case, whether the amounts of N, P, and K actually reduced is uncertain and ambiguous, and the effects of the ZGP are difficult to identify. This paper aims to measure environmental productivity and examine the specific effects of the ZGP on China’s wheat production. Based on the province-level data of 14 provinces from 2010 to 2022, environmental efficiency and environmental productivity of wheat production are measured and decomposed. The empirical results indicate that the nutrient-oriented efficiency is low (0.50), and 40% of the current nutrients can be reduced to become environmentally efficient after being technically efficient. Besides, the ZGP can significantly affect nutrient-oriented productivity change (NTFPC). Only when the growth rates of both fertilizer application and total nutrients contained in different types of fertilizers are decreased can the NTFPC be improved and agricultural pollution be reduced. Additionally, improving the environment quality and enhancing the social well-being of farmers are beneficial to increasing NTFPC.