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Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis

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  • Ina Hajdini

Abstract

This Economic Commentary explores the connections among labor market tightness, wage inflation, and price inflation at the service sector level. Across most service sectors, sector-specific labor market tightness and nominal wage growth have been above prepandemic averages since 2022. The data suggest that a stronger positive relationship between labor market tightness and wage growth has emerged in the aftermath of the pandemic. The relationship between sector-specific wage growth and inflation is more varied. In the education and health services sector, higher wage growth is associated with higher inflation after about one year; in the leisure and hospitality services sector, the positive relationship is contemporaneous. I do not find a significant relationship between wage growth and inflation in the other service sectors, such as transportation or financial and business services.

Suggested Citation

  • Ina Hajdini, 2024. "Wage Growth, Labor Market Tightness, and Inflation: A Service Sector Analysis," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2024(15), pages 1-9, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:98711
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202415
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
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