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Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Alvarez
  • John Bluedorn
  • Niels-Jakob Hansen
  • Youyou Huang
  • Evgenia Pugacheva
  • Alexandre Sollaci

Abstract

How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Alvarez & John Bluedorn & Niels-Jakob Hansen & Youyou Huang & Evgenia Pugacheva & Alexandre Sollaci, 2023. "Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-04, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacp:acp2023-04
    Note: Paper presented at the RBA's annual conference 'Inflation', Sydney, 25–26 September 2023.
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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2023/pdf/rba-conference-2023-alvarez-bluedorn-hansen-huang-pugacheva-sollaci.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-289, March.
    2. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    3. Koester, Gerrit & Grapow, Helen, 2021. "The prevalence of private sector wage indexation in the euro area and its potential role for the impact of inflation on wages," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
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    2. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2023. "The inflation loop is not a myth," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    4. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.
    5. Ferri, Piero & Cristini, Annalisa & Tramontana, Fabio, 2023. "Meta-models of the Phillips curve and income distribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 215-232.
    6. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "When Should Central Banks Fear Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10966, CESifo.
    7. Michal Franta & Jan Vlcek, 2024. "Wage-Price Spirals: A Risk-Based Approach," Working Papers 2024/1, Czech National Bank.
    8. Max Sina Knicker & Karl Naumann-Woleske & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Francesco Zamponi, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation & the Monetary Policy Dilemma: An Agent-Based Scenario Analysis," Papers 2306.01284, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.

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    Keywords

    inflation; wages; wage-price spirals; labor markets;
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