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The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States

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  • Bobeica, Elena
  • Ciccarelli, Matteo
  • Vansteenkiste, Isabel

Abstract

The link between US labor cost and price inflation has weakened notably over the past three decades. In this paper we document this decline and analyse potential contributing factors. We consider four important trends that have shaped the US economy of late: (i) improved anchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) the changing constellation of shocks hitting the economy; (iii) increased trade integration and (iv) rising firm market power. We find that the improved anchoring of inflation expectations has played a particularly relevant role but also that the latter two trends offer promising avenues to understand the decline in pass-through from labor cost to price inflation. Our results also bring supportive evidence to the view taken by the FED in the context of its monetary policy strategy review that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation. JEL Classification: C32, E24, E31

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  • Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "The changing link between labor cost and price inflation in the United States," Working Paper Series 2583, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212583
    Note: 2382002
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    3. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    4. Ampudia, Miguel & Lombardi, Marco Jacopo & Renault, Théodore, 2024. "The wage-price pass-through across sectors: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 2948, European Central Bank.
    5. Arndt, Sarah & Enders, Zeno, 2023. "Shock Transmissions in Different Inflation Regimes," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277682, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Shuichiro Ikeda & Haruhiko Inatsugu & Yui Kishaba & Takuji Kondo & Kenichi Sakura & Kosuke Takatomi & Takashi Nakazawa & Kotone Yamada, "undated". "Inflation in Japan: Changes during the Pandemic and Issues for the Future," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-18, Bank of Japan.
    7. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    8. Kouvavas, Omiros & Osbat, Chiara & Reinelt, Timo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2021. "Markups and inflation cyclicality in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2617, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; labor costs; pass-through; structural VAR; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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