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Globalisation and the Decoupling of Inflation from Domestic Labour Costs

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  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run pass-through from domestic labour cost changes to core CPI inflation decreased from 0.25 in the 1980s to just 0.02 in the 2010s, while the longrun pass-through fell from 0.36 to 0.03, with the estimates in the 2010s no longer significant. We show that the timing of the collapse in the pass-through coincides with a steep increase in import penetration from a group of major manufacturing EMEs around the turn of the millennium, which signals increased competition and market contestability.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Globalisation and the Decoupling of Inflation from Domestic Labour Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9281, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    2. Kristin J. Forbes, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(2 (Fall)), pages 257-338.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    4. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    5. Auer, Raphael A. & Degen, Kathrin & Fischer, Andreas M., 2013. "Low-wage import competition, inflationary pressure, and industry dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 141-166.
    6. Elena Bobeica & Matteo Ciccarelli & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 848, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Ekaterina V. Peneva & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2017. "The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1777-1802, December.
    8. Gordon, Robert J, 1988. "The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 276-283, May.
    9. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    10. Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Elöd Takáts, 2019. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: What Has Changed Since the Crisis?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 27-58, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hukkinen, Juhana & Viren, Matti, 2024. "Was Globalization the Root Cause of Low Inflation?," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 77(3), pages 337-370.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benjamin Bittschi & Josef Baumgartner, 2023. "Kollektivvertragsverhandlungen in Zeiten hoher Inflation," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), pages 613-632, September.
    3. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Moessner, Richhild, 2022. "Globalisation and the slope of the Phillips curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 9/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(9), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    competition; globalisation; import penetration; inflation; labour market; pass-through; wage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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