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Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance?

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  • Martin DeLuca
  • Willem Van Zandweghe

Abstract

Measures of wage growth have increased substantially during and after the pandemic compared to their average levels in the decade before. Does higher wage growth reflect compensation for a higher cost of living, brought about by an increase in inflation in the past two years? Or has an imbalance between strong labor demand and restrained labor supply lifted wage growth? Using a new empirical wage Phillips curve model, we find that the increase in wage growth largely reflects the pass-through of higher inflation and does not reflect labor market imbalances. The model forecasts a decline in wage growth to about 3 percent annually by 2025.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin DeLuca & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2023. "Postpandemic Nominal Wage Growth: Inflation Pass-Through or Labor Market Imbalance?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(13), pages 1-6, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:96558
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-ec-202313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2018. "A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1271-1289, November.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    3. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc & Mollie Pepper, 2022. "Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(21), pages 1-6, August.
    4. Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2014. "On the Relationships between Wages, Prices, and Economic Activity," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug.
    5. Christopher L. Smith, 2014. "The Effect of Labor Slack on Wages : Evidence from State-Level Relationships," FEDS Notes 2014-06-02-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Meg Tulloch, "undated". "Nowcasting and Forecasting Average Weekly Earnings in the United Kingdom," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 565, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    2. Di Nino, Virginia & Aprigliano, Valentina, 2024. "How income expectations adjust to inflation – a consumers’ expectations-revealed pass-through," Working Paper Series 2986, European Central Bank.

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